President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority of 161 seats in the 300-member National Assembly, while the main opposition People Power Party controls 110. Impeachment requires a two-thirds supermajority of 200 votes, a threshold the opposition cannot reach without substantial cross-party defections. A June 2026 petition drive gathered over 100,000 signatures citing suspended criminal cases, yet it advanced no further given the ruling bloc’s control. Lee’s approval rating has fallen to a new low of 40.2 percent amid housing policy disputes and judicial tensions, but these pressures have not produced the legislative conditions or coalition needed for removal before 2027. Traders price the structural barrier as the dominant factor sustaining the strong “No” consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
9% chance
$21,566 Vol.
$21,566 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
9% chance
$21,566 Vol.
$21,566 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority of 161 seats in the 300-member National Assembly, while the main opposition People Power Party controls 110. Impeachment requires a two-thirds supermajority of 200 votes, a threshold the opposition cannot reach without substantial cross-party defections. A June 2026 petition drive gathered over 100,000 signatures citing suspended criminal cases, yet it advanced no further given the ruling bloc’s control. Lee’s approval rating has fallen to a new low of 40.2 percent amid housing policy disputes and judicial tensions, but these pressures have not produced the legislative conditions or coalition needed for removal before 2027. Traders price the structural barrier as the dominant factor sustaining the strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$21,566End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority of 161 seats in the 300-member National Assembly, while the main opposition People Power Party controls 110. Impeachment requires a two-thirds supermajority of 200 votes, a threshold the opposition cannot reach without substantial cross-party defections. A June 2026 petition drive gathered over 100,000 signatures citing suspended criminal cases, yet it advanced no further given the ruling bloc’s control. Lee’s approval rating has fallen to a new low of 40.2 percent amid housing policy disputes and judicial tensions, but these pressures have not produced the legislative conditions or coalition needed for removal before 2027. Traders price the structural barrier as the dominant factor sustaining the strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$21,566End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority of 161 seats in the 300-member National Assembly, while the main opposition People Power Party controls 110. Impeachment requires a two-thirds supermajority of 200 votes, a threshold the opposition cannot reach without substantial cross-party defections. A June 2026 petition drive gathered over 100,000 signatures citing suspended criminal cases, yet it advanced no further given the ruling bloc’s control. Lee’s approval rating has fallen to a new low of 40.2 percent amid housing policy disputes and judicial tensions, but these pressures have not produced the legislative conditions or coalition needed for removal before 2027. Traders price the structural barrier as the dominant factor sustaining the strong “No” consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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