**Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to no dissolution of Japan’s House of Representatives in 2026 because the chamber underwent a snap election on February 8 following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s January 23 dissolution, producing a decisive LDP supermajority of 316 seats.** This outcome, secured only months ago, delivered a fresh four-year mandate that typically deters immediate re-dissolution. With the LDP holding a commanding position and no scheduled upper-house contest until 2028, the political calendar and governing arithmetic favor completing the current term. A second dissolution within the same calendar year would be historically unusual and require an acute crisis—such as a sudden collapse in cabinet support, a successful no-confidence motion, or an unforeseen external shock—to override the recent electoral stability. Absent such triggers, the market reflects the strong structural disincentive for another lower-house election before 2027 at the earliest.