Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election place Likud in a narrow range of roughly 20–27 seats, reflecting ongoing volatility in voter preferences amid the protracted security situation and coalition strains that prompted the vote. Netanyahu's party, currently at 32 seats and set to merge with New Hope, has seen modest post-primary gains in some surveys but faces pressure from emerging opposition options such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar and Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad, alongside bloc-level competition that keeps neither the pro-Netanyahu nor opposing alignment near a clear majority. Recent Likud primaries and security developments have produced mixed polling shifts without establishing a sustained trend, leaving traders with closely matched probabilities across the 20–29 seat bands. Further movement could follow additional security incidents, coalition partner adjustments, or clearer consolidation behind major opposition lists before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25-29 35%
20-24 32%
<20 17.8%
30-34 18%
$106,100 Vol.
$106,100 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
18%
20-24
32%
25-29
35%
30-34
18%
35+
3%
25-29 35%
20-24 32%
<20 17.8%
30-34 18%
$106,100 Vol.
$106,100 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
$34,703 Vol.
18%
20-24
$16,129 Vol.
32%
25-29
$25,496 Vol.
35%
30-34
$20,265 Vol.
18%
35+
$9,507 Vol.
3%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election place Likud in a narrow range of roughly 20–27 seats, reflecting ongoing volatility in voter preferences amid the protracted security situation and coalition strains that prompted the vote. Netanyahu's party, currently at 32 seats and set to merge with New Hope, has seen modest post-primary gains in some surveys but faces pressure from emerging opposition options such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar and Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad, alongside bloc-level competition that keeps neither the pro-Netanyahu nor opposing alignment near a clear majority. Recent Likud primaries and security developments have produced mixed polling shifts without establishing a sustained trend, leaving traders with closely matched probabilities across the 20–29 seat bands. Further movement could follow additional security incidents, coalition partner adjustments, or clearer consolidation behind major opposition lists before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$106,100End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election place Likud in a narrow range of roughly 20–27 seats, reflecting ongoing volatility in voter preferences amid the protracted security situation and coalition strains that prompted the vote. Netanyahu's party, currently at 32 seats and set to merge with New Hope, has seen modest post-primary gains in some surveys but faces pressure from emerging opposition options such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar and Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad, alongside bloc-level competition that keeps neither the pro-Netanyahu nor opposing alignment near a clear majority. Recent Likud primaries and security developments have produced mixed polling shifts without establishing a sustained trend, leaving traders with closely matched probabilities across the 20–29 seat bands. Further movement could follow additional security incidents, coalition partner adjustments, or clearer consolidation behind major opposition lists before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$106,100End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election place Likud in a narrow range of roughly 20–27 seats, reflecting ongoing volatility in voter preferences amid the protracted security situation and coalition strains that prompted the vote. Netanyahu's party, currently at 32 seats and set to merge with New Hope, has seen modest post-primary gains in some surveys but faces pressure from emerging opposition options such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar and Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad, alongside bloc-level competition that keeps neither the pro-Netanyahu nor opposing alignment near a clear majority. Recent Likud primaries and security developments have produced mixed polling shifts without establishing a sustained trend, leaving traders with closely matched probabilities across the 20–29 seat bands. Further movement could follow additional security incidents, coalition partner adjustments, or clearer consolidation behind major opposition lists before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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