Republican incumbent Mike Bost holds a commanding position in Illinois's 12th congressional district, a southern Illinois seat encompassing Carbondale, Marion, and St. Louis exurbs with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+22. Bost won reelection in 2024 with 74 percent of the vote and advanced through the March 2026 Republican primary without significant opposition. Democratic nominee Julie Fortier faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently supported Republicans since 2015. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including incumbency advantages, established voter patterns, and limited crossover appeal. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-12 House Election Winner
IL-12 House Election Winner
$24,585 Vol.
$24,585 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
97%
Democratic Party
2%
$24,585 Vol.
$24,585 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$13,473 Vol.
97%
Democratic Party
$11,112 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Mike Bost holds a commanding position in Illinois's 12th congressional district, a southern Illinois seat encompassing Carbondale, Marion, and St. Louis exurbs with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+22. Bost won reelection in 2024 with 74 percent of the vote and advanced through the March 2026 Republican primary without significant opposition. Democratic nominee Julie Fortier faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently supported Republicans since 2015. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including incumbency advantages, established voter patterns, and limited crossover appeal. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,585End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Mike Bost holds a commanding position in Illinois's 12th congressional district, a southern Illinois seat encompassing Carbondale, Marion, and St. Louis exurbs with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+22. Bost won reelection in 2024 with 74 percent of the vote and advanced through the March 2026 Republican primary without significant opposition. Democratic nominee Julie Fortier faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently supported Republicans since 2015. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including incumbency advantages, established voter patterns, and limited crossover appeal. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,585End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Mike Bost holds a commanding position in Illinois's 12th congressional district, a southern Illinois seat encompassing Carbondale, Marion, and St. Louis exurbs with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+22. Bost won reelection in 2024 with 74 percent of the vote and advanced through the March 2026 Republican primary without significant opposition. Democratic nominee Julie Fortier faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently supported Republicans since 2015. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including incumbency advantages, established voter patterns, and limited crossover appeal. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions