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Politics·Global Elections

Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner

icon for Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner

Ricardo Ferraço 87%

Lorenzo Pazolini 11%

Arnaldinho Borgo <1%

Sergio Vidigal <1%

Polymarket

$31,916 Vol.

Ricardo Ferraço 87%

Lorenzo Pazolini 11%

Arnaldinho Borgo <1%

Sergio Vidigal <1%

Polymarket

$31,916 Vol.

Ricardo Ferraço

$11,304 Vol.

87%

Lorenzo Pazolini

$9,013 Vol.

11%

Arnaldinho Borgo

$4,602 Vol.

<1%

Sergio Vidigal

$3,569 Vol.

<1%

Euclério Sampaio

$3,428 Vol.

<1%

The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço holds an 87% implied probability in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial market due to his incumbency advantage after assuming the governorship in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat. Recent June 2026 polling shows Ferraço ahead of main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini, with approval ratings near 77% and backing from the MDB-led coalition plus potential PSB neutrality. Pazolini, the Republicanos mayor of Vitória at 11%, trails despite earlier first-round leads in 2025 surveys. Minor candidates including Sergio Vidigal, Arnaldinho Borgo, and Euclério Sampaio register negligible shares amid low trading volume and fragmented opposition. Upcoming October first-round voting and any new polls could shift positioning before a potential runoff.

The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$31,916
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço holds an 87% implied probability in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial market due to his incumbency advantage after assuming the governorship in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat. Recent June 2026 polling shows Ferraço ahead of main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini, with approval ratings near 77% and backing from the MDB-led coalition plus potential PSB neutrality. Pazolini, the Republicanos mayor of Vitória at 11%, trails despite earlier first-round leads in 2025 surveys. Minor candidates including Sergio Vidigal, Arnaldinho Borgo, and Euclério Sampaio register negligible shares amid low trading volume and fragmented opposition. Upcoming October first-round voting and any new polls could shift positioning before a potential runoff.

The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$31,916
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ricardo Ferraço" at 87%, followed by "Lorenzo Pazolini" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner" has generated $31.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner" is "Ricardo Ferraço" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lorenzo Pazolini" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.