**Doug Ford remains firmly entrenched as Ontario PC Party leader, with recent public statements, party performance, and active governance reinforcing trader expectations that he will not step down by year-end.** Ford has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to leading the party into a potential fourth term, including direct pushback in June 2026 against succession speculation following his 2025 re-election victory. Internal polling cited by the premier and party sources shows the PCs maintaining a lead, with Ford positioned as the strongest preferred premier option despite mixed personal approval ratings. No leadership review, convention vote, or organized challenge has materialized to force an exit before December 31, 2026, and recent activity—such as his prominent role responding to U.S. tariff threats in August—demonstrates continued frontline engagement. While some conservative voices have discussed contingency planning and potential successors, these remain speculative and distant from any imminent change. The combination of Ford’s incumbency strength, electoral track record, and absence of acute internal pressure supports the market’s 87% implied probability on the “No” outcome.