Skip to main content
icon for Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Politics·Pierre

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

icon for Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Politics·Pierre

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

13% chance
Polymarket

$157,225 Vol.

13% chance
Polymarket

$157,225 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pierre Poilievre secured 87.4 percent support in a January 2026 Conservative leadership review vote at the party convention in Calgary, following the 2025 federal election loss and his subsequent by-election victory in Battle River-Crowfoot. This outcome, combined with his continued role directing caucus activities, shadow cabinet shuffles, and policy responses through mid-2026, has reinforced trader expectations that he will retain the leadership through the end of the year. Recent internal criticism and MP departures have prompted media discussion of party infighting, yet no formal challenge mechanism or scheduled convention vote exists before December 2026, and Poilievre maintains strong backing from core delegates and riding associations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$157,225
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pierre Poilievre secured 87.4 percent support in a January 2026 Conservative leadership review vote at the party convention in Calgary, following the 2025 federal election loss and his subsequent by-election victory in Battle River-Crowfoot. This outcome, combined with his continued role directing caucus activities, shadow cabinet shuffles, and policy responses through mid-2026, has reinforced trader expectations that he will retain the leadership through the end of the year. Recent internal criticism and MP departures have prompted media discussion of party infighting, yet no formal challenge mechanism or scheduled convention vote exists before December 2026, and Poilievre maintains strong backing from core delegates and riding associations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$157,225
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?

22%
icon for Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

7%
icon for Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

49%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 13% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 13¢, the market collectively assigns a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" has generated $157.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" is 13% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.