Mike Derry holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the riding’s consistent UCP support and his June 24 nomination victory over sitting city councillor Dan McLean. The south Calgary suburban district, vacated by former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz in May 2026, saw Schulz win by more than 3,000 votes in 2023. Premier Danielle Smith has endorsed Derry, whose oil-and-gas and community background aligns with local priorities on affordability, energy jobs, and provincial governance. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and minor entrants including Liberal leader John Roggeveen and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph face structural barriers in a riding where UCP incumbents have dominated recent cycles. The September 14 vote, with nominations closing August 27 and advance polls from September 8–12, offers limited time for challengers to shift voter coalitions absent major late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMike Derry 92%
Kyle Campbell 5%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
$10,395 Vol.
$10,395 Vol.
Mike Derry
92%
Kyle Campbell
5%
John Roggeveen
<1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
Mike Derry 92%
Kyle Campbell 5%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
$10,395 Vol.
$10,395 Vol.
Mike Derry
92%
Kyle Campbell
5%
John Roggeveen
<1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the riding’s consistent UCP support and his June 24 nomination victory over sitting city councillor Dan McLean. The south Calgary suburban district, vacated by former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz in May 2026, saw Schulz win by more than 3,000 votes in 2023. Premier Danielle Smith has endorsed Derry, whose oil-and-gas and community background aligns with local priorities on affordability, energy jobs, and provincial governance. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and minor entrants including Liberal leader John Roggeveen and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph face structural barriers in a riding where UCP incumbents have dominated recent cycles. The September 14 vote, with nominations closing August 27 and advance polls from September 8–12, offers limited time for challengers to shift voter coalitions absent major late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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