Apple’s efficient approach to artificial intelligence—leveraging external models like Google Gemini for on-device features while keeping capital expenditures low—has driven recent outperformance, briefly pushing its market cap above $5 trillion in July before settling near $4.6 trillion. Strong fiscal Q3 results, with 16% revenue growth led by iPhone demand and expanding services, plus an active 2.5 billion device base, underpin trader consensus around the $4–5 trillion range. Uncertainty stems from the September 9 product event under incoming CEO John Ternus, potential foldable iPhone impact, holiday sales execution, and broader tech rotation away from heavy AI spenders, creating closely matched probabilities across multiple bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4.50-$5.00T 22%
$4.00-$4.50T 22%
$5.00-$5.50T 18%
$5.50-$6.00T 12%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.50T
7%
$3.50-$4.00T
11%
$4.00-$4.50T
22%
$4.50-$5.00T
22%
$5.00-$5.50T
18%
$5.50-$6.00T
12%
$6.00T+
11%
$4.50-$5.00T 22%
$4.00-$4.50T 22%
$5.00-$5.50T 18%
$5.50-$6.00T 12%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.50T
$390 Vol.
7%
$3.50-$4.00T
$62 Vol.
11%
$4.00-$4.50T
$608 Vol.
22%
$4.50-$5.00T
$116 Vol.
22%
$5.00-$5.50T
$42 Vol.
18%
$5.50-$6.00T
$152 Vol.
12%
$6.00T+
$84 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s efficient approach to artificial intelligence—leveraging external models like Google Gemini for on-device features while keeping capital expenditures low—has driven recent outperformance, briefly pushing its market cap above $5 trillion in July before settling near $4.6 trillion. Strong fiscal Q3 results, with 16% revenue growth led by iPhone demand and expanding services, plus an active 2.5 billion device base, underpin trader consensus around the $4–5 trillion range. Uncertainty stems from the September 9 product event under incoming CEO John Ternus, potential foldable iPhone impact, holiday sales execution, and broader tech rotation away from heavy AI spenders, creating closely matched probabilities across multiple bins.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ET
Volume
$1,455End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s efficient approach to artificial intelligence—leveraging external models like Google Gemini for on-device features while keeping capital expenditures low—has driven recent outperformance, briefly pushing its market cap above $5 trillion in July before settling near $4.6 trillion. Strong fiscal Q3 results, with 16% revenue growth led by iPhone demand and expanding services, plus an active 2.5 billion device base, underpin trader consensus around the $4–5 trillion range. Uncertainty stems from the September 9 product event under incoming CEO John Ternus, potential foldable iPhone impact, holiday sales execution, and broader tech rotation away from heavy AI spenders, creating closely matched probabilities across multiple bins.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$1,455End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Apple’s efficient approach to artificial intelligence—leveraging external models like Google Gemini for on-device features while keeping capital expenditures low—has driven recent outperformance, briefly pushing its market cap above $5 trillion in July before settling near $4.6 trillion. Strong fiscal Q3 results, with 16% revenue growth led by iPhone demand and expanding services, plus an active 2.5 billion device base, underpin trader consensus around the $4–5 trillion range. Uncertainty stems from the September 9 product event under incoming CEO John Ternus, potential foldable iPhone impact, holiday sales execution, and broader tech rotation away from heavy AI spenders, creating closely matched probabilities across multiple bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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