Brazilian Senate rules require a two-thirds vote—54 of 81 senators—to convict and remove any STF justice, a threshold that has never been met in the court's history. Recent congressional inquiries have referred cases involving ministers such as Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes, yet Senate leadership has declined to advance formal proceedings, treating related campaign pledges as non-binding rhetoric. Justice Mendes and other institutional actors have highlighted the structural barriers, including cross-party alliances that favor stability ahead of the October 2026 elections. With only months remaining before 2027, traders view any successful impeachment as improbable absent an unforeseen realignment in Senate composition or leadership priorities that overcomes these entrenched procedural and political safeguards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$83,766 Vol.
$83,766 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$83,766 Vol.
$83,766 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian Senate rules require a two-thirds vote—54 of 81 senators—to convict and remove any STF justice, a threshold that has never been met in the court's history. Recent congressional inquiries have referred cases involving ministers such as Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes, yet Senate leadership has declined to advance formal proceedings, treating related campaign pledges as non-binding rhetoric. Justice Mendes and other institutional actors have highlighted the structural barriers, including cross-party alliances that favor stability ahead of the October 2026 elections. With only months remaining before 2027, traders view any successful impeachment as improbable absent an unforeseen realignment in Senate composition or leadership priorities that overcomes these entrenched procedural and political safeguards.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$83,766End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian Senate rules require a two-thirds vote—54 of 81 senators—to convict and remove any STF justice, a threshold that has never been met in the court's history. Recent congressional inquiries have referred cases involving ministers such as Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes, yet Senate leadership has declined to advance formal proceedings, treating related campaign pledges as non-binding rhetoric. Justice Mendes and other institutional actors have highlighted the structural barriers, including cross-party alliances that favor stability ahead of the October 2026 elections. With only months remaining before 2027, traders view any successful impeachment as improbable absent an unforeseen realignment in Senate composition or leadership priorities that overcomes these entrenched procedural and political safeguards.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,766End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazilian Senate rules require a two-thirds vote—54 of 81 senators—to convict and remove any STF justice, a threshold that has never been met in the court's history. Recent congressional inquiries have referred cases involving ministers such as Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes, yet Senate leadership has declined to advance formal proceedings, treating related campaign pledges as non-binding rhetoric. Justice Mendes and other institutional actors have highlighted the structural barriers, including cross-party alliances that favor stability ahead of the October 2026 elections. With only months remaining before 2027, traders view any successful impeachment as improbable absent an unforeseen realignment in Senate composition or leadership priorities that overcomes these entrenched procedural and political safeguards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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