David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary through a narrow 0.4-point victory over Francesca Hong after final vote tallies and her concession eliminated any recount possibility. Endorsements from outgoing Governor Tony Evers and other party figures, combined with Crowley's positioning as a moderate Milwaukee County executive capable of appealing across the swing state's electorate, consolidated support among establishment and moderate voters. Hong led late polls by double digits as the progressive frontrunner but fell short in a four-candidate field where remaining votes split among other contenders. The market's 99.1% implied probability on Crowley reflects the confirmed results, though late-breaking certification issues or disputes over provisional ballots could theoretically alter the narrow margin before full resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCrowley wins 99.1%
Hong 5–10% <1%
Hong 30%+ <1%
Hong 25–30% <1%
$217,978 Vol.
$217,978 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Hong 30%+
<1%
Hong 25–30%
<1%
Hong 20–25%
<1%
Hong 15–20%
<1%
Hong 10–15%
<1%
Hong 5–10%
1%
Hong <5%
<1%
Crowley wins
99%
Barnes wins
<1%
Crowley wins 99.1%
Hong 5–10% <1%
Hong 30%+ <1%
Hong 25–30% <1%
$217,978 Vol.
$217,978 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Hong 30%+
$80,404 Vol.
<1%
Hong 25–30%
$43,659 Vol.
<1%
Hong 20–25%
$8,559 Vol.
<1%
Hong 15–20%
$4,911 Vol.
<1%
Hong 10–15%
$8,562 Vol.
<1%
Hong 5–10%
$31,881 Vol.
1%
Hong <5%
$18,890 Vol.
<1%
Crowley wins
$19,209 Vol.
99%
Barnes wins
$1,903 Vol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary through a narrow 0.4-point victory over Francesca Hong after final vote tallies and her concession eliminated any recount possibility. Endorsements from outgoing Governor Tony Evers and other party figures, combined with Crowley's positioning as a moderate Milwaukee County executive capable of appealing across the swing state's electorate, consolidated support among establishment and moderate voters. Hong led late polls by double digits as the progressive frontrunner but fell short in a four-candidate field where remaining votes split among other contenders. The market's 99.1% implied probability on Crowley reflects the confirmed results, though late-breaking certification issues or disputes over provisional ballots could theoretically alter the narrow margin before full resolution.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ET
Volume
$217,978End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary through a narrow 0.4-point victory over Francesca Hong after final vote tallies and her concession eliminated any recount possibility. Endorsements from outgoing Governor Tony Evers and other party figures, combined with Crowley's positioning as a moderate Milwaukee County executive capable of appealing across the swing state's electorate, consolidated support among establishment and moderate voters. Hong led late polls by double digits as the progressive frontrunner but fell short in a four-candidate field where remaining votes split among other contenders. The market's 99.1% implied probability on Crowley reflects the confirmed results, though late-breaking certification issues or disputes over provisional ballots could theoretically alter the narrow margin before full resolution.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$217,978End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary through a narrow 0.4-point victory over Francesca Hong after final vote tallies and her concession eliminated any recount possibility. Endorsements from outgoing Governor Tony Evers and other party figures, combined with Crowley's positioning as a moderate Milwaukee County executive capable of appealing across the swing state's electorate, consolidated support among establishment and moderate voters. Hong led late polls by double digits as the progressive frontrunner but fell short in a four-candidate field where remaining votes split among other contenders. The market's 99.1% implied probability on Crowley reflects the confirmed results, though late-breaking certification issues or disputes over provisional ballots could theoretically alter the narrow margin before full resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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