Geopolitical tensions surrounding U.S.-Iran relations and restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of WTI pricing, supporting elevated levels near $85 per barrel amid ongoing supply constraints. Recent U.S. Treasury announcements of intensified sanctions on Iranian exports have prompted short-term profit-taking, while global inventories continue to draw down sharply—onshore stocks sit well below seasonal norms. OPEC+ members are executing gradual quota increases of 188,000 barrels per day for August, partially offsetting disruptions but not yet restoring pre-conflict flows. Weak Chinese refinery demand and a stronger U.S. dollar index add downward pressure, though backwardation in futures curves signals persistent tightness. Key near-term catalysts include weekly EIA inventory data, further diplomatic signals on sanctions, and any shifts in Middle East shipping volumes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,756 Vol.
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
3%
↑ $100
35%
↑ $95
46%
↑ $90
27%
↓ $80
23%
↓ $75
3%
↓ $70
46%
↓ $65
35%
↓ $60
35%
↓ $55
2%
$10,756 Vol.
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
3%
↑ $100
35%
↑ $95
46%
↑ $90
27%
↓ $80
23%
↓ $75
3%
↓ $70
46%
↓ $65
35%
↓ $60
35%
↓ $55
2%
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month).
Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day).
For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTIResolver
0x65070BE91...Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month).
Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day).
For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTIResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions surrounding U.S.-Iran relations and restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of WTI pricing, supporting elevated levels near $85 per barrel amid ongoing supply constraints. Recent U.S. Treasury announcements of intensified sanctions on Iranian exports have prompted short-term profit-taking, while global inventories continue to draw down sharply—onshore stocks sit well below seasonal norms. OPEC+ members are executing gradual quota increases of 188,000 barrels per day for August, partially offsetting disruptions but not yet restoring pre-conflict flows. Weak Chinese refinery demand and a stronger U.S. dollar index add downward pressure, though backwardation in futures curves signals persistent tightness. Key near-term catalysts include weekly EIA inventory data, further diplomatic signals on sanctions, and any shifts in Middle East shipping volumes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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