**Traders assign a 94.9% implied probability to "No" on a Trump visit to Gaza in 2026 due to the absence of any announced plans, persistent security instability, and standard presidential travel patterns.** Ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts through the Board of Peace, envoys like Jared Kushner, and multilateral talks with Israel, Hamas representatives, Egypt, and Qatar have focused on disarmament sequencing, phased Israeli withdrawals, and pilot humanitarian zones rather than high-level site visits. As of late August 2026, Israeli strikes continue in parts of Gaza, Hamas disarmament remains incomplete, and the peace roadmap faces repeated implementation hurdles, keeping the territory under elevated security protocols. Trump previously voiced general interest in seeing reconstruction progress after the 2025 ceasefire but has not scheduled or signaled a 2026 trip. U.S. presidents rarely enter active or recently contested conflict zones without full stabilization and host-government coordination, and no primary-source developments in the past month indicate a shift toward such an itinerary. The market consensus reflects this combination of diplomatic focus on lower-profile mechanisms and unresolved conditions on the ground.