The 76% trader consensus against additional public excommunications in 2026 reflects the Catholic Church's historically cautious approach to the penalty, which bishops apply sparingly even in cases of grave misconduct. The Vatican's July 2026 decree against the Society of St. Pius X—excommunicating its six bishops, roughly 750 priests, and formally adhering lay members for unauthorized consecrations that defied Pope Leo XIV—represented the most significant such action in decades and appears to have addressed the primary schismatic challenge for now. An August laicization of a U.S. priest for schism added to 2026 activity but remained limited in scope. With Pope Leo emphasizing unity amid ongoing reforms and no comparable public crises emerging since, traders assess low odds of further high-profile cases before year-end, though unresolved tensions with traditionalist groups or individual clergy could still prompt rare additional measures.