**Russian forces have conducted sustained but largely unsuccessful assaults on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for over 1,500 days as part of efforts to advance toward Orikhiv, a key defensive hub shielding approaches to Zaporizhzhia city.** Open-source maps and Ukrainian brigade reports (notably the 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade) indicate the village remains under Ukrainian control or in contested gray zones as of late August 2026, with active fighting focused on outskirts, ruins of a former prison complex, and small-unit infiltrations rather than full seizure. Recent developments include repeated Russian attempts using small infantry groups, motorcycle convoys, and limited mechanized probes, frequently repelled by Ukrainian FPV drones, artillery, and electronic warfare. Russian milbloggers and channels have claimed incremental gains or full capture in August 2026, yet these remain unconfirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry and contradicted by Ukrainian sources and mapping data showing unsettled control (around 6% Russian-held per some trackers). The settlement is heavily damaged by glide bombs, but Ukrainian defenders have maintained positions through rotations and counteractions. Trader sentiment on the associated Polymarket reflects this pattern: low implied probability for capture by September 30, 2026 (around 21% Yes), rising toward year-end (around 67% for December 31), consistent with the village’s history as a persistent obstacle amid broader slow Russian advances in the sector. Key variables include Ukrainian drone effectiveness, Russian force concentration for Orikhiv pushes, and verification standards tied to reliable mapping sources for market resolution. No major scheduled events beyond ongoing frontline operations are expected to alter the immediate trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
$375,757 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
September 30
16%
December 31
59%
$375,757 Vol.
September 30
$285,083 Vol.
16%
December 31
$12,592 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted sustained but largely unsuccessful assaults on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for over 1,500 days as part of efforts to advance toward Orikhiv, a key defensive hub shielding approaches to Zaporizhzhia city.** Open-source maps and Ukrainian brigade reports (notably the 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade) indicate the village remains under Ukrainian control or in contested gray zones as of late August 2026, with active fighting focused on outskirts, ruins of a former prison complex, and small-unit infiltrations rather than full seizure.
Recent developments include repeated Russian attempts using small infantry groups, motorcycle convoys, and limited mechanized probes, frequently repelled by Ukrainian FPV drones, artillery, and electronic warfare. Russian milbloggers and channels have claimed incremental gains or full capture in August 2026, yet these remain unconfirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry and contradicted by Ukrainian sources and mapping data showing unsettled control (around 6% Russian-held per some trackers). The settlement is heavily damaged by glide bombs, but Ukrainian defenders have maintained positions through rotations and counteractions.
Trader sentiment on the associated Polymarket reflects this pattern: low implied probability for capture by September 30, 2026 (around 21% Yes), rising toward year-end (around 67% for December 31), consistent with the village’s history as a persistent obstacle amid broader slow Russian advances in the sector. Key variables include Ukrainian drone effectiveness, Russian force concentration for Orikhiv pushes, and verification standards tied to reliable mapping sources for market resolution. No major scheduled events beyond ongoing frontline operations are expected to alter the immediate trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$375,757End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted sustained but largely unsuccessful assaults on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for over 1,500 days as part of efforts to advance toward Orikhiv, a key defensive hub shielding approaches to Zaporizhzhia city.** Open-source maps and Ukrainian brigade reports (notably the 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade) indicate the village remains under Ukrainian control or in contested gray zones as of late August 2026, with active fighting focused on outskirts, ruins of a former prison complex, and small-unit infiltrations rather than full seizure.
Recent developments include repeated Russian attempts using small infantry groups, motorcycle convoys, and limited mechanized probes, frequently repelled by Ukrainian FPV drones, artillery, and electronic warfare. Russian milbloggers and channels have claimed incremental gains or full capture in August 2026, yet these remain unconfirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry and contradicted by Ukrainian sources and mapping data showing unsettled control (around 6% Russian-held per some trackers). The settlement is heavily damaged by glide bombs, but Ukrainian defenders have maintained positions through rotations and counteractions.
Trader sentiment on the associated Polymarket reflects this pattern: low implied probability for capture by September 30, 2026 (around 21% Yes), rising toward year-end (around 67% for December 31), consistent with the village’s history as a persistent obstacle amid broader slow Russian advances in the sector. Key variables include Ukrainian drone effectiveness, Russian force concentration for Orikhiv pushes, and verification standards tied to reliable mapping sources for market resolution. No major scheduled events beyond ongoing frontline operations are expected to alter the immediate trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$375,757End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Russian forces have conducted sustained but largely unsuccessful assaults on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for over 1,500 days as part of efforts to advance toward Orikhiv, a key defensive hub shielding approaches to Zaporizhzhia city.** Open-source maps and Ukrainian brigade reports (notably the 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade) indicate the village remains under Ukrainian control or in contested gray zones as of late August 2026, with active fighting focused on outskirts, ruins of a former prison complex, and small-unit infiltrations rather than full seizure. Recent developments include repeated Russian attempts using small infantry groups, motorcycle convoys, and limited mechanized probes, frequently repelled by Ukrainian FPV drones, artillery, and electronic warfare. Russian milbloggers and channels have claimed incremental gains or full capture in August 2026, yet these remain unconfirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry and contradicted by Ukrainian sources and mapping data showing unsettled control (around 6% Russian-held per some trackers). The settlement is heavily damaged by glide bombs, but Ukrainian defenders have maintained positions through rotations and counteractions. Trader sentiment on the associated Polymarket reflects this pattern: low implied probability for capture by September 30, 2026 (around 21% Yes), rising toward year-end (around 67% for December 31), consistent with the village’s history as a persistent obstacle amid broader slow Russian advances in the sector. Key variables include Ukrainian drone effectiveness, Russian force concentration for Orikhiv pushes, and verification standards tied to reliable mapping sources for market resolution. No major scheduled events beyond ongoing frontline operations are expected to alter the immediate trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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