The UAE's departure from OPEC effective May 1, 2026, following its April announcement citing national production flexibility amid quota tensions, represents the most recent membership shift. Subsequent OPEC+ ministerial meetings through August have focused on coordinated output adjustments and reaffirmed commitments from core producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, with no public signals of further exits. Remaining members face structural incentives to maintain influence over global supply amid ongoing energy market volatility, while historical precedents of isolated departures (such as Angola in 2024) have not triggered immediate follow-on exits. With four months left in the year, trader consensus at 93% for no additional departures reflects this observed stability and absence of new diplomatic or economic catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
7% chance
$161,096 Vol.
$161,096 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$161,096 Vol.
$161,096 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's departure from OPEC effective May 1, 2026, following its April announcement citing national production flexibility amid quota tensions, represents the most recent membership shift. Subsequent OPEC+ ministerial meetings through August have focused on coordinated output adjustments and reaffirmed commitments from core producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, with no public signals of further exits. Remaining members face structural incentives to maintain influence over global supply amid ongoing energy market volatility, while historical precedents of isolated departures (such as Angola in 2024) have not triggered immediate follow-on exits. With four months left in the year, trader consensus at 93% for no additional departures reflects this observed stability and absence of new diplomatic or economic catalysts.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$161,096End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's departure from OPEC effective May 1, 2026, following its April announcement citing national production flexibility amid quota tensions, represents the most recent membership shift. Subsequent OPEC+ ministerial meetings through August have focused on coordinated output adjustments and reaffirmed commitments from core producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, with no public signals of further exits. Remaining members face structural incentives to maintain influence over global supply amid ongoing energy market volatility, while historical precedents of isolated departures (such as Angola in 2024) have not triggered immediate follow-on exits. With four months left in the year, trader consensus at 93% for no additional departures reflects this observed stability and absence of new diplomatic or economic catalysts.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$161,096End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's departure from OPEC effective May 1, 2026, following its April announcement citing national production flexibility amid quota tensions, represents the most recent membership shift. Subsequent OPEC+ ministerial meetings through August have focused on coordinated output adjustments and reaffirmed commitments from core producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, with no public signals of further exits. Remaining members face structural incentives to maintain influence over global supply amid ongoing energy market volatility, while historical precedents of isolated departures (such as Angola in 2024) have not triggered immediate follow-on exits. With four months left in the year, trader consensus at 93% for no additional departures reflects this observed stability and absence of new diplomatic or economic catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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