Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District features a pronounced Democratic partisan advantage centered in Milwaukee, where incumbent Rep. Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 with consistent double-digit margins. Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 2026 primary against limited opposition, while Republican nominee Tim Rogers and an independent candidate advanced with minimal resources or visibility. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's D+26 lean and historical voting patterns. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95.9% implied probability, consistent with these structural factors. An upset would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development affecting Moore, or an unprecedented national Republican surge exceeding historical benchmarks in the district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$36,727 Vol.
$36,727 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
1%
$36,727 Vol.
$36,727 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,331 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$22,396 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District features a pronounced Democratic partisan advantage centered in Milwaukee, where incumbent Rep. Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 with consistent double-digit margins. Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 2026 primary against limited opposition, while Republican nominee Tim Rogers and an independent candidate advanced with minimal resources or visibility. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's D+26 lean and historical voting patterns. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95.9% implied probability, consistent with these structural factors. An upset would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development affecting Moore, or an unprecedented national Republican surge exceeding historical benchmarks in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$36,727End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District features a pronounced Democratic partisan advantage centered in Milwaukee, where incumbent Rep. Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 with consistent double-digit margins. Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 2026 primary against limited opposition, while Republican nominee Tim Rogers and an independent candidate advanced with minimal resources or visibility. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's D+26 lean and historical voting patterns. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95.9% implied probability, consistent with these structural factors. An upset would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development affecting Moore, or an unprecedented national Republican surge exceeding historical benchmarks in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,727End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District features a pronounced Democratic partisan advantage centered in Milwaukee, where incumbent Rep. Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 with consistent double-digit margins. Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 2026 primary against limited opposition, while Republican nominee Tim Rogers and an independent candidate advanced with minimal resources or visibility. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's D+26 lean and historical voting patterns. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95.9% implied probability, consistent with these structural factors. An upset would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development affecting Moore, or an unprecedented national Republican surge exceeding historical benchmarks in the district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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