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Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·Mma

Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Tom Aspinall 66%

Ciryl Gane 28%

Josh Hokit 4.6%

Alexander Volkov 1.0%

Polymarket

$338,700 Vol.

Tom Aspinall 66%

Ciryl Gane 28%

Josh Hokit 4.6%

Alexander Volkov 1.0%

Polymarket

$338,700 Vol.

Tom Aspinall

$8,866 Vol.

64%

Ciryl Gane

$6,947 Vol.

28%

Josh Hokit

$793 Vol.

5%

Alexander Volkov

$27,652 Vol.

1%

Serghei Spivac

$581 Vol.

1%

Curtis Blaydes

$66,738 Vol.

<1%

Marcin Tybura

$166,830 Vol.

<1%

Sergei Pavlovich

$555 Vol.

<1%

Tyrell Fortune

$395 Vol.

<1%

Jailton Almeida

$521 Vol.

<1%

Rizvan Kuniev

$439 Vol.

<1%

Waldo Cortes Acosta

$48,207 Vol.

<1%

Ante Delija

$584 Vol.

<1%

Derrick Lewis

$9,592 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Tom Aspinall holds the undisputed UFC heavyweight title after Jon Jones retired, though he has not competed since a October 2025 no-contest against Ciryl Gane caused by repeated eye pokes that led to surgery and extended recovery. Traders price Aspinall highest at 67.5% largely because of his prior dominance and confirmed commitment to the division amid ongoing unification talks. Gane sits at 27% after capturing the interim belt with a second-round TKO of Alex Pereira in June 2026, positioning him as the clear next challenger once Aspinall returns, likely in late 2026. Lower probabilities for fighters such as Josh Hokit, Alexander Volkov, and Serghei Spivac reflect their recent wins and ranking climbs but limited paths to the title without major upsets or Aspinall setbacks. Recent reports confirm Aspinall is training and engaged with the UFC, stabilizing his lead while the division awaits resolution of the interim situation.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$338,700
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Tom Aspinall holds the undisputed UFC heavyweight title after Jon Jones retired, though he has not competed since a October 2025 no-contest against Ciryl Gane caused by repeated eye pokes that led to surgery and extended recovery. Traders price Aspinall highest at 67.5% largely because of his prior dominance and confirmed commitment to the division amid ongoing unification talks. Gane sits at 27% after capturing the interim belt with a second-round TKO of Alex Pereira in June 2026, positioning him as the clear next challenger once Aspinall returns, likely in late 2026. Lower probabilities for fighters such as Josh Hokit, Alexander Volkov, and Serghei Spivac reflect their recent wins and ranking climbs but limited paths to the title without major upsets or Aspinall setbacks. Recent reports confirm Aspinall is training and engaged with the UFC, stabilizing his lead while the division awaits resolution of the interim situation.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$338,700
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Aspinall" at 64%, followed by "Ciryl Gane" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $338.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Tom Aspinall" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ciryl Gane" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.