The tight race between Alexandre Pantoja at 50% and Joshua Van at 46.5% in the end-of-2026 UFC flyweight title market reflects the high-stakes rematch scheduled for UFC 331 on September 19. Van captured the belt from Pantoja via first-round TKO in December 2025 due to a freak arm injury, then defended successfully with a fifth-round stoppage of Tatsuro Taira in May 2026. Pantoja, the division's longtime record-holder for wins and finishes, enters the rematch fully recovered and emphasizing his elite resume against top competition. Van's youth, recent momentum, and undefeated streak since the title win create genuine uncertainty, while lower-probability names like Manel Kape remain distant without imminent title opportunities. This matchup's outcome will heavily shape the division's direction through year's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Pantoja 50%
Joshua Van 48%
Manel Kape 2.1%
Tim Elliott <1%
$1,180,784 Vol.
$1,180,784 Vol.
Alexandre Pantoja
50%
Joshua Van
48%
Manel Kape
2%
Tim Elliott
<1%
Amir Albazi
<1%
Asu Almabayev
<1%
Tatsuro Taira
<1%
Kyoji Horiguchi
<1%
Brandon Moreno
<1%
Brandon Royval
<1%
Steve Erceg
<1%
Alexandre Pantoja 50%
Joshua Van 48%
Manel Kape 2.1%
Tim Elliott <1%
$1,180,784 Vol.
$1,180,784 Vol.
Alexandre Pantoja
50%
Joshua Van
48%
Manel Kape
2%
Tim Elliott
<1%
Amir Albazi
<1%
Asu Almabayev
<1%
Tatsuro Taira
<1%
Kyoji Horiguchi
<1%
Brandon Moreno
<1%
Brandon Royval
<1%
Steve Erceg
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The tight race between Alexandre Pantoja at 50% and Joshua Van at 46.5% in the end-of-2026 UFC flyweight title market reflects the high-stakes rematch scheduled for UFC 331 on September 19. Van captured the belt from Pantoja via first-round TKO in December 2025 due to a freak arm injury, then defended successfully with a fifth-round stoppage of Tatsuro Taira in May 2026. Pantoja, the division's longtime record-holder for wins and finishes, enters the rematch fully recovered and emphasizing his elite resume against top competition. Van's youth, recent momentum, and undefeated streak since the title win create genuine uncertainty, while lower-probability names like Manel Kape remain distant without imminent title opportunities. This matchup's outcome will heavily shape the division's direction through year's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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