Skip to main content
icon for Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

icon for Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

James Ho 24%

Amul Thapar 21%

Andrew Oldham 12%

Patrick Bumatay 10.8%

Polymarket
NEW

James Ho 24%

Amul Thapar 21%

Andrew Oldham 12%

Patrick Bumatay 10.8%

Polymarket
NEW

James Ho

$644 Vol.

24%

Amul Thapar

$208 Vol.

21%

Andrew Oldham

$637 Vol.

12%

Patrick Bumatay

$881 Vol.

11%

Steven Menashi

$105 Vol.

9%

Neomi Rao

$108 Vol.

9%

Gregory Katsas

$127 Vol.

6%

Ted Cruz

$160 Vol.

5%

Mike Lee

$125 Vol.

5%

John Sauer

$121 Vol.

4%

Aileen Cannon

$255 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The open-ended nature of the next Supreme Court vacancy under the current administration keeps trader consensus fragmented across a wide field of federal appeals court judges, many appointed during Donald Trump's first term. Leading contenders such as James Ho, Amul Thapar, Gregory Katsas, and Andrew Oldham draw support due to their records on constitutional issues and alignment with administration priorities, while lower-priced options including Aileen Cannon, Patrick Bumatay, and Neomi Rao reflect narrower betting on specific circuits or prior roles. Senate confirmation dynamics, potential retirements among sitting justices, and any future shortlist announcements remain the primary variables that could consolidate probabilities ahead of a formal nomination.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,370
End Date
Jan 19, 2029
Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The open-ended nature of the next Supreme Court vacancy under the current administration keeps trader consensus fragmented across a wide field of federal appeals court judges, many appointed during Donald Trump's first term. Leading contenders such as James Ho, Amul Thapar, Gregory Katsas, and Andrew Oldham draw support due to their records on constitutional issues and alignment with administration priorities, while lower-priced options including Aileen Cannon, Patrick Bumatay, and Neomi Rao reflect narrower betting on specific circuits or prior roles. Senate confirmation dynamics, potential retirements among sitting justices, and any future shortlist announcements remain the primary variables that could consolidate probabilities ahead of a formal nomination.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,370
End Date
Jan 19, 2029
Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?

Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?

65%
icon for SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?

SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?

1%
icon for SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?

31%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "James Ho" at 24%, followed by "Amul Thapar" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" is "James Ho" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Amul Thapar" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.