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Politics·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Politics·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

$389,315 Vol.

Polymarket

$389,315 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$150,327 Vol.

11%

John Brennan

$21,514 Vol.

18%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$21,892 Vol.

16%

Adam Schiff

$16,402 Vol.

3%

Barack Obama

$29,174 Vol.

2%

James Comey

$9,716 Vol.

6%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,308 Vol.

27%

James Clapper

$6,726 Vol.

12%

Letitia James

$2,908 Vol.

13%

Hillary Clinton

$25,139 Vol.

2%

Bill Clinton

$2,614 Vol.

2%

Loretta Lynch

$2,376 Vol.

11%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

9%

Candace Owens

$268 Vol.

7%

Gavin Newsom

$38,834 Vol.

2%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,923 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$501 Vol.

2%

Pam Bondi

$2,027 Vol.

3%

Tom Homan

$40,051 Vol.

12%

Kash Patel

$564 Vol.

2%

Brandon Johnson

$3,197 Vol.

13%

Lisa Cook

$3,374 Vol.

8%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$7,381 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader focus on the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" market centers on former U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials amid active congressional scrutiny and DOJ investigations.** John Brennan currently leads implied probabilities, followed by options such as James Comey, Anthony Fauci, and Mahmoud Khalil, reflecting trader assessments of ongoing probes into prior official conduct, pandemic-related matters, and immigration enforcement cases. Fauci’s July 2026 Senate testimony, during which he invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly, and subpoenas or grand jury activity tied to others have sustained interest. Resolution requires physical arrest or qualifying detention by December 31, 2026. Markets assign lower odds to sitting or former elected figures like Barack Obama or Joe Biden due to higher procedural and political barriers. Upcoming Senate actions, court rulings on detentions, and enforcement priorities through year-end remain key variables that could shift positioning before the cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$389,315
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader focus on the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" market centers on former U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials amid active congressional scrutiny and DOJ investigations.** John Brennan currently leads implied probabilities, followed by options such as James Comey, Anthony Fauci, and Mahmoud Khalil, reflecting trader assessments of ongoing probes into prior official conduct, pandemic-related matters, and immigration enforcement cases. Fauci’s July 2026 Senate testimony, during which he invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly, and subpoenas or grand jury activity tied to others have sustained interest. Resolution requires physical arrest or qualifying detention by December 31, 2026. Markets assign lower odds to sitting or former elected figures like Barack Obama or Joe Biden due to higher procedural and political barriers. Upcoming Senate actions, court rulings on detentions, and enforcement priorities through year-end remain key variables that could shift positioning before the cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$389,315
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be arrested before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mahmoud Khalil" at 27%, followed by "John Brennan" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be arrested before 2027?" has generated $389.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be arrested before 2027?," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be arrested before 2027?" is "Mahmoud Khalil" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Brennan" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be arrested before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.