Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen’s long tenure since 2001 and the district’s consistent Democratic lean—rated solid or safe by multiple forecasters—anchor trader expectations for a November general election victory. The August top-two primary confirmed this positioning, with Larsen advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Edwin Feller despite intra-party challengers splitting remaining votes. Strong fundraising, labor and environmental endorsements, and the absence of competitive polling or major national headwinds further reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented partisan swing exceeding historical margins in this D+12 district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-02 House Election Winner
WA-02 House Election Winner
$17,895 Vol.
$17,895 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$17,895 Vol.
$17,895 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,575 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$6,321 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen’s long tenure since 2001 and the district’s consistent Democratic lean—rated solid or safe by multiple forecasters—anchor trader expectations for a November general election victory. The August top-two primary confirmed this positioning, with Larsen advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Edwin Feller despite intra-party challengers splitting remaining votes. Strong fundraising, labor and environmental endorsements, and the absence of competitive polling or major national headwinds further reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented partisan swing exceeding historical margins in this D+12 district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$17,895End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen’s long tenure since 2001 and the district’s consistent Democratic lean—rated solid or safe by multiple forecasters—anchor trader expectations for a November general election victory. The August top-two primary confirmed this positioning, with Larsen advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Edwin Feller despite intra-party challengers splitting remaining votes. Strong fundraising, labor and environmental endorsements, and the absence of competitive polling or major national headwinds further reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented partisan swing exceeding historical margins in this D+12 district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,895End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen’s long tenure since 2001 and the district’s consistent Democratic lean—rated solid or safe by multiple forecasters—anchor trader expectations for a November general election victory. The August top-two primary confirmed this positioning, with Larsen advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Edwin Feller despite intra-party challengers splitting remaining votes. Strong fundraising, labor and environmental endorsements, and the absence of competitive polling or major national headwinds further reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented partisan swing exceeding historical margins in this D+12 district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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