Democratic incumbent Becca Balint holds a commanding lead in Vermont’s at-large House race, reflected in trader consensus for the Democratic Party. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows her ahead of Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by roughly 38 points among likely voters after the August 11 primaries, consistent with the district’s longstanding Democratic preference in federal contests and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Balint’s strong primary performance, substantial fundraising edge, and Vermont’s electoral history reinforce the current implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-breaking scandals, significant health developments, or an unexpected national political realignment that alters turnout patterns before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVT-AL House Election Winner
VT-AL House Election Winner
$39,626 Vol.
$39,626 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$39,626 Vol.
$39,626 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,650 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$30,976 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Becca Balint holds a commanding lead in Vermont’s at-large House race, reflected in trader consensus for the Democratic Party. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows her ahead of Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by roughly 38 points among likely voters after the August 11 primaries, consistent with the district’s longstanding Democratic preference in federal contests and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Balint’s strong primary performance, substantial fundraising edge, and Vermont’s electoral history reinforce the current implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-breaking scandals, significant health developments, or an unexpected national political realignment that alters turnout patterns before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$39,626End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Becca Balint holds a commanding lead in Vermont’s at-large House race, reflected in trader consensus for the Democratic Party. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows her ahead of Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by roughly 38 points among likely voters after the August 11 primaries, consistent with the district’s longstanding Democratic preference in federal contests and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Balint’s strong primary performance, substantial fundraising edge, and Vermont’s electoral history reinforce the current implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-breaking scandals, significant health developments, or an unexpected national political realignment that alters turnout patterns before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,626End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Becca Balint holds a commanding lead in Vermont’s at-large House race, reflected in trader consensus for the Democratic Party. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows her ahead of Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by roughly 38 points among likely voters after the August 11 primaries, consistent with the district’s longstanding Democratic preference in federal contests and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Balint’s strong primary performance, substantial fundraising edge, and Vermont’s electoral history reinforce the current implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-breaking scandals, significant health developments, or an unexpected national political realignment that alters turnout patterns before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions