Recent polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show a tight three-way primary contest among the Coalition (27-32%), Labor (23-28%), and One Nation (22-27%), with the Greens at 12-14% and others lower, creating uncertainty over final seat rankings after preferences. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking One Nation’s state helm in early August—have produced mixed polling shifts without clear separation. Preference flows from minor parties and independents remain pivotal in determining which contender secures the third-most Legislative Assembly seats, sustaining trader consensus around closely matched probabilities. Late-campaign developments in outer-suburban or regional electorates could alter outcomes by boosting or fragmenting support for One Nation or the majors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVictoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Labor 35%
One Nation 34%
Greens 4.2%
Libertarian 4.1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
35%
One Nation
57%
Greens
4%
Libertarian
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
4%
Animal Justice
4%
Legalise Cannabis
4%
Liberal–National
4%
Labor 35%
One Nation 34%
Greens 4.2%
Libertarian 4.1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
$4 Vol.
35%
One Nation
$60 Vol.
57%
Greens
$0 Vol.
4%
Libertarian
$0 Vol.
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$0 Vol.
4%
Animal Justice
$0 Vol.
4%
Legalise Cannabis
$0 Vol.
4%
Liberal–National
$0 Vol.
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show a tight three-way primary contest among the Coalition (27-32%), Labor (23-28%), and One Nation (22-27%), with the Greens at 12-14% and others lower, creating uncertainty over final seat rankings after preferences. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking One Nation’s state helm in early August—have produced mixed polling shifts without clear separation. Preference flows from minor parties and independents remain pivotal in determining which contender secures the third-most Legislative Assembly seats, sustaining trader consensus around closely matched probabilities. Late-campaign developments in outer-suburban or regional electorates could alter outcomes by boosting or fragmenting support for One Nation or the majors.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$63End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show a tight three-way primary contest among the Coalition (27-32%), Labor (23-28%), and One Nation (22-27%), with the Greens at 12-14% and others lower, creating uncertainty over final seat rankings after preferences. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking One Nation’s state helm in early August—have produced mixed polling shifts without clear separation. Preference flows from minor parties and independents remain pivotal in determining which contender secures the third-most Legislative Assembly seats, sustaining trader consensus around closely matched probabilities. Late-campaign developments in outer-suburban or regional electorates could alter outcomes by boosting or fragmenting support for One Nation or the majors.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$63End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show a tight three-way primary contest among the Coalition (27-32%), Labor (23-28%), and One Nation (22-27%), with the Greens at 12-14% and others lower, creating uncertainty over final seat rankings after preferences. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking One Nation’s state helm in early August—have produced mixed polling shifts without clear separation. Preference flows from minor parties and independents remain pivotal in determining which contender secures the third-most Legislative Assembly seats, sustaining trader consensus around closely matched probabilities. Late-campaign developments in outer-suburban or regional electorates could alter outcomes by boosting or fragmenting support for One Nation or the majors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
72%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
72%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
62%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions