**Nicolás Maduro’s commanding position in the market stems from the continuity of Venezuela’s institutional framework and chavista networks following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces.** Despite his removal and ongoing U.S. legal proceedings, traders assign him an 85.2% implied probability of remaining head of state at year-end, reflecting assessments that de jure recognition or regime restoration could prevail over a fragile transition. Delcy Rodríguez’s 9.5% share aligns with her role as acting president, bolstered by restored U.S. diplomatic ties, economic outreach, and stability-focused backing from Washington. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register minimal odds due to exile status, limited domestic institutional control, and the absence of scheduled elections or power-sharing mechanisms within the resolution window. Recent consolidation under Rodríguez and lingering uncertainties around full democratic handover sustain the current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 85.2%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.1%
No Head of State 1.3%
$95,790,935 Vol.
$95,790,935 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
85%
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
María Corina Machado
2%
No Head of State
1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 85.2%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.1%
No Head of State 1.3%
$95,790,935 Vol.
$95,790,935 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,779,863 Vol.
85%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,769,407 Vol.
10%
María Corina Machado
$1,448,567 Vol.
2%
No Head of State
$1,515,062 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$1,214,659 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,089,153 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$817,076 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,163,999 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,980,596 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,634,990 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,125,665 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,405,438 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,178,636 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,803,203 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,113,079 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,751,542 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
**Nicolás Maduro’s commanding position in the market stems from the continuity of Venezuela’s institutional framework and chavista networks following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces.** Despite his removal and ongoing U.S. legal proceedings, traders assign him an 85.2% implied probability of remaining head of state at year-end, reflecting assessments that de jure recognition or regime restoration could prevail over a fragile transition. Delcy Rodríguez’s 9.5% share aligns with her role as acting president, bolstered by restored U.S. diplomatic ties, economic outreach, and stability-focused backing from Washington. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register minimal odds due to exile status, limited domestic institutional control, and the absence of scheduled elections or power-sharing mechanisms within the resolution window. Recent consolidation under Rodríguez and lingering uncertainties around full democratic handover sustain the current pricing.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$95,790,935End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
**Nicolás Maduro’s commanding position in the market stems from the continuity of Venezuela’s institutional framework and chavista networks following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces.** Despite his removal and ongoing U.S. legal proceedings, traders assign him an 85.2% implied probability of remaining head of state at year-end, reflecting assessments that de jure recognition or regime restoration could prevail over a fragile transition. Delcy Rodríguez’s 9.5% share aligns with her role as acting president, bolstered by restored U.S. diplomatic ties, economic outreach, and stability-focused backing from Washington. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register minimal odds due to exile status, limited domestic institutional control, and the absence of scheduled elections or power-sharing mechanisms within the resolution window. Recent consolidation under Rodríguez and lingering uncertainties around full democratic handover sustain the current pricing.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$95,790,935End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Nicolás Maduro’s commanding position in the market stems from the continuity of Venezuela’s institutional framework and chavista networks following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces.** Despite his removal and ongoing U.S. legal proceedings, traders assign him an 85.2% implied probability of remaining head of state at year-end, reflecting assessments that de jure recognition or regime restoration could prevail over a fragile transition. Delcy Rodríguez’s 9.5% share aligns with her role as acting president, bolstered by restored U.S. diplomatic ties, economic outreach, and stability-focused backing from Washington. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register minimal odds due to exile status, limited domestic institutional control, and the absence of scheduled elections or power-sharing mechanisms within the resolution window. Recent consolidation under Rodríguez and lingering uncertainties around full democratic handover sustain the current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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