Utah's 4th congressional district enters the November 2026 general election with a Republican nominee holding a commanding position due to its strong partisan lean, reflected in an R+14 to R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Court-ordered redistricting produced boundaries favoring Republican performance, with Donald Trump carrying the area by roughly 32 points in 2024. Incumbent Burgess Owens retired, allowing Mike Kennedy to consolidate the Republican nomination through the convention process without a contested primary. The Democratic nominee, Jonny Larsen, has raised minimal funds relative to the Republican. A national midterm environment favoring Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout remain the primary factors that could narrow the margin, though the district's baseline metrics limit such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUT-04 House Election Winner
UT-04 House Election Winner
$41,764 Vol.
$41,764 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
$41,764 Vol.
$41,764 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$15,673 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$26,091 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district enters the November 2026 general election with a Republican nominee holding a commanding position due to its strong partisan lean, reflected in an R+14 to R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Court-ordered redistricting produced boundaries favoring Republican performance, with Donald Trump carrying the area by roughly 32 points in 2024. Incumbent Burgess Owens retired, allowing Mike Kennedy to consolidate the Republican nomination through the convention process without a contested primary. The Democratic nominee, Jonny Larsen, has raised minimal funds relative to the Republican. A national midterm environment favoring Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout remain the primary factors that could narrow the margin, though the district's baseline metrics limit such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$41,764End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district enters the November 2026 general election with a Republican nominee holding a commanding position due to its strong partisan lean, reflected in an R+14 to R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Court-ordered redistricting produced boundaries favoring Republican performance, with Donald Trump carrying the area by roughly 32 points in 2024. Incumbent Burgess Owens retired, allowing Mike Kennedy to consolidate the Republican nomination through the convention process without a contested primary. The Democratic nominee, Jonny Larsen, has raised minimal funds relative to the Republican. A national midterm environment favoring Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout remain the primary factors that could narrow the margin, though the district's baseline metrics limit such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,764End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district enters the November 2026 general election with a Republican nominee holding a commanding position due to its strong partisan lean, reflected in an R+14 to R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Court-ordered redistricting produced boundaries favoring Republican performance, with Donald Trump carrying the area by roughly 32 points in 2024. Incumbent Burgess Owens retired, allowing Mike Kennedy to consolidate the Republican nomination through the convention process without a contested primary. The Democratic nominee, Jonny Larsen, has raised minimal funds relative to the Republican. A national midterm environment favoring Democrats, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout remain the primary factors that could narrow the margin, though the district's baseline metrics limit such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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