Ukraine's intelligence officials assessed in mid-August 2026 that Russia shows no signs of readiness for a ceasefire or meaningful negotiations by year-end, citing Moscow's intent to complete the capture of Donetsk region and its rejection of terms short of its core territorial and security demands. Formal U.S.-mediated talks have remained stalled since February 2026 amid competing priorities, while Russian officials continue to condition any settlement on Ukrainian concessions in the Donbas that Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out. Recent statements from both sides, including Zelensky's August 24 Independence Day address rejecting surrender and Kremlin comments open only to proposals aligned with existing battlefield realities, underscore the persistent gaps that limit prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated15% chance
$2,589,720 Vol.
$2,589,720 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
15% chance
$2,589,720 Vol.
$2,589,720 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ukraine's intelligence officials assessed in mid-August 2026 that Russia shows no signs of readiness for a ceasefire or meaningful negotiations by year-end, citing Moscow's intent to complete the capture of Donetsk region and its rejection of terms short of its core territorial and security demands. Formal U.S.-mediated talks have remained stalled since February 2026 amid competing priorities, while Russian officials continue to condition any settlement on Ukrainian concessions in the Donbas that Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out. Recent statements from both sides, including Zelensky's August 24 Independence Day address rejecting surrender and Kremlin comments open only to proposals aligned with existing battlefield realities, underscore the persistent gaps that limit prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,589,720End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ukraine's intelligence officials assessed in mid-August 2026 that Russia shows no signs of readiness for a ceasefire or meaningful negotiations by year-end, citing Moscow's intent to complete the capture of Donetsk region and its rejection of terms short of its core territorial and security demands. Formal U.S.-mediated talks have remained stalled since February 2026 amid competing priorities, while Russian officials continue to condition any settlement on Ukrainian concessions in the Donbas that Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out. Recent statements from both sides, including Zelensky's August 24 Independence Day address rejecting surrender and Kremlin comments open only to proposals aligned with existing battlefield realities, underscore the persistent gaps that limit prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,589,720End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's intelligence officials assessed in mid-August 2026 that Russia shows no signs of readiness for a ceasefire or meaningful negotiations by year-end, citing Moscow's intent to complete the capture of Donetsk region and its rejection of terms short of its core territorial and security demands. Formal U.S.-mediated talks have remained stalled since February 2026 amid competing priorities, while Russian officials continue to condition any settlement on Ukrainian concessions in the Donbas that Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out. Recent statements from both sides, including Zelensky's August 24 Independence Day address rejecting surrender and Kremlin comments open only to proposals aligned with existing battlefield realities, underscore the persistent gaps that limit prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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