The TX-30 race features an open seat after incumbent Jasmine Crockett shifted to a Senate bid, with Democrat Frederick Haynes advancing from the March primary and Republican Everett Jackson winning the May runoff. The district's strong Democratic lean (D+25 or greater on partisan voting index metrics) keeps Republican victory odds minimal at 2.3%, while market pricing across Democrat margin buckets from 40-70%+ reflects broad consensus on a sizable Haynes win but uncertainty over the precise spread. Limited post-primary polling and absence of major recent catalysts—such as new surveys, endorsements, or campaign finance shifts—have kept the leading outcomes tightly bunched near 50%. Factors that could widen separation include updated polling averages, turnout modeling for November, national midterm dynamics affecting battleground enthusiasm, or late developments in candidate positioning that alter expected vote shares.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-30 House Election Margin of Victory
TX-30 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 65-70% 23%
Democrat 60-65% 23%
Democrat 50-55% 23%
Democrat 45-50% 23%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 70%+
22%
Democrat 65-70%
23%
Democrat 60-65%
23%
Democrat 55-60%
18%
Democrat 50-55%
23%
Democrat 45-50%
23%
Democrat 40-45%
18%
Democrat 30-40%
16%
Democrat 0-30%
20%
Republican Wins
2%
Democrat 65-70% 23%
Democrat 60-65% 23%
Democrat 50-55% 23%
Democrat 45-50% 23%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 70%+
$0 Vol.
22%
Democrat 65-70%
$0 Vol.
23%
Democrat 60-65%
$0 Vol.
23%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 Vol.
18%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 Vol.
23%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 Vol.
23%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Vol.
18%
Democrat 30-40%
$0 Vol.
16%
Democrat 0-30%
$0 Vol.
20%
Republican Wins
$78 Vol.
2%
The 2026 TX-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The TX-30 race features an open seat after incumbent Jasmine Crockett shifted to a Senate bid, with Democrat Frederick Haynes advancing from the March primary and Republican Everett Jackson winning the May runoff. The district's strong Democratic lean (D+25 or greater on partisan voting index metrics) keeps Republican victory odds minimal at 2.3%, while market pricing across Democrat margin buckets from 40-70%+ reflects broad consensus on a sizable Haynes win but uncertainty over the precise spread. Limited post-primary polling and absence of major recent catalysts—such as new surveys, endorsements, or campaign finance shifts—have kept the leading outcomes tightly bunched near 50%. Factors that could widen separation include updated polling averages, turnout modeling for November, national midterm dynamics affecting battleground enthusiasm, or late developments in candidate positioning that alter expected vote shares.
The 2026 TX-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$78End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 TX-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The TX-30 race features an open seat after incumbent Jasmine Crockett shifted to a Senate bid, with Democrat Frederick Haynes advancing from the March primary and Republican Everett Jackson winning the May runoff. The district's strong Democratic lean (D+25 or greater on partisan voting index metrics) keeps Republican victory odds minimal at 2.3%, while market pricing across Democrat margin buckets from 40-70%+ reflects broad consensus on a sizable Haynes win but uncertainty over the precise spread. Limited post-primary polling and absence of major recent catalysts—such as new surveys, endorsements, or campaign finance shifts—have kept the leading outcomes tightly bunched near 50%. Factors that could widen separation include updated polling averages, turnout modeling for November, national midterm dynamics affecting battleground enthusiasm, or late developments in candidate positioning that alter expected vote shares.
The 2026 TX-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$78End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The TX-30 race features an open seat after incumbent Jasmine Crockett shifted to a Senate bid, with Democrat Frederick Haynes advancing from the March primary and Republican Everett Jackson winning the May runoff. The district's strong Democratic lean (D+25 or greater on partisan voting index metrics) keeps Republican victory odds minimal at 2.3%, while market pricing across Democrat margin buckets from 40-70%+ reflects broad consensus on a sizable Haynes win but uncertainty over the precise spread. Limited post-primary polling and absence of major recent catalysts—such as new surveys, endorsements, or campaign finance shifts—have kept the leading outcomes tightly bunched near 50%. Factors that could widen separation include updated polling averages, turnout modeling for November, national midterm dynamics affecting battleground enthusiasm, or late developments in candidate positioning that alter expected vote shares.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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