The TX-19 race centers on an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Jodey Arrington’s retirement, with the district’s entrenched conservative lean driving the 95% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. West Texas voters have consistently delivered large GOP margins in recent cycles, and independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Tom Sell secured the nomination following a May primary runoff, facing Democrat Kyle Rable in the November general election. Limited general-election polling and fundraising data reinforce the structural advantage, while historical turnout patterns and the absence of major Democratic inroads limit upside for the challenger. A national wave or unforeseen candidate-specific development could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-19 House Election Winner
TX-19 House Election Winner
$22,847 Vol.
$22,847 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
$22,847 Vol.
$22,847 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$2,921 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$19,926 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The TX-19 race centers on an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Jodey Arrington’s retirement, with the district’s entrenched conservative lean driving the 95% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. West Texas voters have consistently delivered large GOP margins in recent cycles, and independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Tom Sell secured the nomination following a May primary runoff, facing Democrat Kyle Rable in the November general election. Limited general-election polling and fundraising data reinforce the structural advantage, while historical turnout patterns and the absence of major Democratic inroads limit upside for the challenger. A national wave or unforeseen candidate-specific development could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$22,847End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The TX-19 race centers on an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Jodey Arrington’s retirement, with the district’s entrenched conservative lean driving the 95% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. West Texas voters have consistently delivered large GOP margins in recent cycles, and independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Tom Sell secured the nomination following a May primary runoff, facing Democrat Kyle Rable in the November general election. Limited general-election polling and fundraising data reinforce the structural advantage, while historical turnout patterns and the absence of major Democratic inroads limit upside for the challenger. A national wave or unforeseen candidate-specific development could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,847End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The TX-19 race centers on an open seat after longtime Republican incumbent Jodey Arrington’s retirement, with the district’s entrenched conservative lean driving the 95% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. West Texas voters have consistently delivered large GOP margins in recent cycles, and independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Tom Sell secured the nomination following a May primary runoff, facing Democrat Kyle Rable in the November general election. Limited general-election polling and fundraising data reinforce the structural advantage, while historical turnout patterns and the absence of major Democratic inroads limit upside for the challenger. A national wave or unforeseen candidate-specific development could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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