Florida's 19th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, reflecting consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential elections and placing it among the state's most reliably conservative seats. The open seat, vacated by Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid, drew a crowded Republican primary that concluded August 18 with Jim Schwartzel's nomination; Victor Arias secured the Democratic nod. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent because the district's electorate and structural advantages have historically delivered comfortable GOP victories even in competitive cycles. A late scandal, sharp national Democratic surge, or unusually depressed Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-19 House Election Winner
FL-19 House Election Winner
$17,791 Vol.
$17,791 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$17,791 Vol.
$17,791 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,159 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$11,632 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 19th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, reflecting consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential elections and placing it among the state's most reliably conservative seats. The open seat, vacated by Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid, drew a crowded Republican primary that concluded August 18 with Jim Schwartzel's nomination; Victor Arias secured the Democratic nod. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent because the district's electorate and structural advantages have historically delivered comfortable GOP victories even in competitive cycles. A late scandal, sharp national Democratic surge, or unusually depressed Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$17,791End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 19th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, reflecting consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential elections and placing it among the state's most reliably conservative seats. The open seat, vacated by Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid, drew a crowded Republican primary that concluded August 18 with Jim Schwartzel's nomination; Victor Arias secured the Democratic nod. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent because the district's electorate and structural advantages have historically delivered comfortable GOP victories even in competitive cycles. A late scandal, sharp national Democratic surge, or unusually depressed Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,791End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 19th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, reflecting consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential elections and placing it among the state's most reliably conservative seats. The open seat, vacated by Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid, drew a crowded Republican primary that concluded August 18 with Jim Schwartzel's nomination; Victor Arias secured the Democratic nod. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent because the district's electorate and structural advantages have historically delivered comfortable GOP victories even in competitive cycles. A late scandal, sharp national Democratic surge, or unusually depressed Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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