Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with traders assigning his reelection a 96.7% implied probability. The state's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a nearly 30-point presidential margin in 2024, underpins this positioning alongside Hagerty's unopposed August 6 primary and record as the sitting senator since 2021. Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, the 2020 nominee who secured her party's nomination in the same primary, faces structural headwinds in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1990. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$29,449 Vol.
$29,449 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
97%
Democrat
3%
$29,449 Vol.
$29,449 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$19,060 Vol.
97%
Democrat
$10,390 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with traders assigning his reelection a 96.7% implied probability. The state's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a nearly 30-point presidential margin in 2024, underpins this positioning alongside Hagerty's unopposed August 6 primary and record as the sitting senator since 2021. Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, the 2020 nominee who secured her party's nomination in the same primary, faces structural headwinds in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1990. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$29,449End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with traders assigning his reelection a 96.7% implied probability. The state's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a nearly 30-point presidential margin in 2024, underpins this positioning alongside Hagerty's unopposed August 6 primary and record as the sitting senator since 2021. Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, the 2020 nominee who secured her party's nomination in the same primary, faces structural headwinds in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1990. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$29,449End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with traders assigning his reelection a 96.7% implied probability. The state's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a nearly 30-point presidential margin in 2024, underpins this positioning alongside Hagerty's unopposed August 6 primary and record as the sitting senator since 2021. Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, the 2020 nominee who secured her party's nomination in the same primary, faces structural headwinds in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1990. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions