**No vacancy is the current trader consensus at 78% because the nine sitting justices have given no public indication of retirement, resignation, or health-related departure through the remainder of 2026.** The oldest members—Clarence Thomas (age ~78) and Samuel Alito (age ~76)—remain active on the bench with no announced plans to step down, despite occasional speculation tied to the current Republican administration and Senate majority. Historical patterns show justices often time exits strategically, yet recent reporting indicates both are inclined to continue serving rather than create an opening this year. Younger colleagues, including Chief Justice John Roberts (~71) and the three liberal justices, show even lower near-term exit risk. No legislative changes to term limits or mandatory retirement have advanced, and no sudden health or personal developments have surfaced in credible reporting. This leaves the market pricing a low implied probability of any vacancy before December 31, 2026, consistent with the absence of confirmed catalysts.