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icon for Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
Climate & Science·Pandemics

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

icon for Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
Climate & Science·Pandemics

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,442 Vol.

Polymarket

August 30

$61 Vol.

44%

October 31

$0 Vol.

48%

December 31

$0 Vol.

46%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) detections—47 confirmed U.S. cases as of August 26, 2026, mostly in Texas livestock with limited New Mexico spread—drive market focus on escalation thresholds. The parasite's larvae cause progressive myiasis in warm-blooded animals; USDA surveillance via traps, drones, and cameras shows northern advance slowing under sterile insect technique releases and quarantines across 23 Texas counties. HHS's August 2025 determination enabled FDA emergency use authorizations for ivermectin and other preventives, while Texas issued a statewide disaster proclamation in June. No presidential national emergency declaration has occurred. Traders watch weekly USDA case updates, model runs on dispersal efficacy, and port reopening data for signs of containment or wider federal action.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.

Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.

The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,442
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) detections—47 confirmed U.S. cases as of August 26, 2026, mostly in Texas livestock with limited New Mexico spread—drive market focus on escalation thresholds. The parasite's larvae cause progressive myiasis in warm-blooded animals; USDA surveillance via traps, drones, and cameras shows northern advance slowing under sterile insect technique releases and quarantines across 23 Texas counties. HHS's August 2025 determination enabled FDA emergency use authorizations for ivermectin and other preventives, while Texas issued a statewide disaster proclamation in June. No presidential national emergency declaration has occurred. Traders watch weekly USDA case updates, model runs on dispersal efficacy, and port reopening data for signs of containment or wider federal action.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.

Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.

The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,442
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "October 31" at 48%, followed by "December 31" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 10, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?" is "October 31" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.