Incumbent Denny Tamaki leads trader pricing at 72% for the September 13 Okinawa gubernatorial election due to his established record opposing the Henoko relocation of U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma and his two prior victories as an independent. Genta Koja, backed by the Liberal Democratic Party and some centrist groups, trails at 25.5% as the main challenger emphasizing economic and welfare measures, with national party resources deployed in recent weeks. Minor candidates including Mikio Shimoji and others remain below 2%, reflecting limited polling traction. The race centers on base-related tensions versus local priorities like healthcare funding, with Tamaki’s incumbency and consistent “All Okinawa” alignment sustaining the current implied probabilities ahead of the final campaign period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDenny Tamaki 72%
Genta Koja 26%
Mikio Shimoji 1.4%
Masahiro Sueyoshi <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
Denny Tamaki
72%
Genta Koja
26%
Mikio Shimoji
1%
Masahiro Sueyoshi
1%
Takashi Higa
1%
Chosuke Yara
<1%
Shun Kaneshima
<1%
Denny Tamaki 72%
Genta Koja 26%
Mikio Shimoji 1.4%
Masahiro Sueyoshi <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
Denny Tamaki
$5,781 Vol.
72%
Genta Koja
$642 Vol.
26%
Mikio Shimoji
$305 Vol.
1%
Masahiro Sueyoshi
$259 Vol.
1%
Takashi Higa
$264 Vol.
1%
Chosuke Yara
$261 Vol.
<1%
Shun Kaneshima
$228 Vol.
<1%
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).Incumbent Denny Tamaki leads trader pricing at 72% for the September 13 Okinawa gubernatorial election due to his established record opposing the Henoko relocation of U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma and his two prior victories as an independent. Genta Koja, backed by the Liberal Democratic Party and some centrist groups, trails at 25.5% as the main challenger emphasizing economic and welfare measures, with national party resources deployed in recent weeks. Minor candidates including Mikio Shimoji and others remain below 2%, reflecting limited polling traction. The race centers on base-related tensions versus local priorities like healthcare funding, with Tamaki’s incumbency and consistent “All Okinawa” alignment sustaining the current implied probabilities ahead of the final campaign period.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Volume
$7,740End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).Incumbent Denny Tamaki leads trader pricing at 72% for the September 13 Okinawa gubernatorial election due to his established record opposing the Henoko relocation of U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma and his two prior victories as an independent. Genta Koja, backed by the Liberal Democratic Party and some centrist groups, trails at 25.5% as the main challenger emphasizing economic and welfare measures, with national party resources deployed in recent weeks. Minor candidates including Mikio Shimoji and others remain below 2%, reflecting limited polling traction. The race centers on base-related tensions versus local priorities like healthcare funding, with Tamaki’s incumbency and consistent “All Okinawa” alignment sustaining the current implied probabilities ahead of the final campaign period.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).
Volume
$7,740End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Denny Tamaki leads trader pricing at 72% for the September 13 Okinawa gubernatorial election due to his established record opposing the Henoko relocation of U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma and his two prior victories as an independent. Genta Koja, backed by the Liberal Democratic Party and some centrist groups, trails at 25.5% as the main challenger emphasizing economic and welfare measures, with national party resources deployed in recent weeks. Minor candidates including Mikio Shimoji and others remain below 2%, reflecting limited polling traction. The race centers on base-related tensions versus local priorities like healthcare funding, with Tamaki’s incumbency and consistent “All Okinawa” alignment sustaining the current implied probabilities ahead of the final campaign period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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