Incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 14th congressional district in the June 23, 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, clearing the field against minor challengers. The district’s strong Democratic lean—rated Solid D by multiple forecasters with a D+19 partisan voting index—combined with the incumbent’s established voter base in Queens and the Bronx, underpins the market’s 94.5 percent pricing for a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Recent campaign finance and primary turnout data reinforce this positioning with no major developments in the past month altering the outlook. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unforeseen national political realignment remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the implied probability before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-14 House Election Winner
NY-14 House Election Winner
$44,273 Vol.
$44,273 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$44,273 Vol.
$44,273 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$29,734 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$14,539 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 14th congressional district in the June 23, 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, clearing the field against minor challengers. The district’s strong Democratic lean—rated Solid D by multiple forecasters with a D+19 partisan voting index—combined with the incumbent’s established voter base in Queens and the Bronx, underpins the market’s 94.5 percent pricing for a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Recent campaign finance and primary turnout data reinforce this positioning with no major developments in the past month altering the outlook. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unforeseen national political realignment remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the implied probability before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$44,273End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 14th congressional district in the June 23, 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, clearing the field against minor challengers. The district’s strong Democratic lean—rated Solid D by multiple forecasters with a D+19 partisan voting index—combined with the incumbent’s established voter base in Queens and the Bronx, underpins the market’s 94.5 percent pricing for a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Recent campaign finance and primary turnout data reinforce this positioning with no major developments in the past month altering the outlook. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unforeseen national political realignment remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the implied probability before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,273End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 14th congressional district in the June 23, 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, clearing the field against minor challengers. The district’s strong Democratic lean—rated Solid D by multiple forecasters with a D+19 partisan voting index—combined with the incumbent’s established voter base in Queens and the Bronx, underpins the market’s 94.5 percent pricing for a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Recent campaign finance and primary turnout data reinforce this positioning with no major developments in the past month altering the outlook. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unforeseen national political realignment remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the implied probability before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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