Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford faces Republican nominee Cody Whipple in Nevada’s 4th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Horsford’s established incumbency since 2019 underpin the 87.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory reflected in current trader consensus. Horsford advanced unopposed in the June Democratic primary, while Whipple secured the Republican nomination with 61.8% of the vote. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report classify the contest as Likely Democratic, consistent with the district’s modest partisan tilt and lack of recent polling shifts that would alter fundamentals. Upcoming general-election dynamics, including turnout in Las Vegas suburbs and rural areas, remain the primary variables that could influence final margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNV-04 House Election Winner
NV-04 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,988 Vol.
88%
Republican Party
$2,254 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford faces Republican nominee Cody Whipple in Nevada’s 4th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Horsford’s established incumbency since 2019 underpin the 87.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory reflected in current trader consensus. Horsford advanced unopposed in the June Democratic primary, while Whipple secured the Republican nomination with 61.8% of the vote. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report classify the contest as Likely Democratic, consistent with the district’s modest partisan tilt and lack of recent polling shifts that would alter fundamentals. Upcoming general-election dynamics, including turnout in Las Vegas suburbs and rural areas, remain the primary variables that could influence final margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$4,242End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford faces Republican nominee Cody Whipple in Nevada’s 4th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Horsford’s established incumbency since 2019 underpin the 87.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory reflected in current trader consensus. Horsford advanced unopposed in the June Democratic primary, while Whipple secured the Republican nomination with 61.8% of the vote. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report classify the contest as Likely Democratic, consistent with the district’s modest partisan tilt and lack of recent polling shifts that would alter fundamentals. Upcoming general-election dynamics, including turnout in Las Vegas suburbs and rural areas, remain the primary variables that could influence final margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,242End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford faces Republican nominee Cody Whipple in Nevada’s 4th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Horsford’s established incumbency since 2019 underpin the 87.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory reflected in current trader consensus. Horsford advanced unopposed in the June Democratic primary, while Whipple secured the Republican nomination with 61.8% of the vote. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report classify the contest as Likely Democratic, consistent with the district’s modest partisan tilt and lack of recent polling shifts that would alter fundamentals. Upcoming general-election dynamics, including turnout in Las Vegas suburbs and rural areas, remain the primary variables that could influence final margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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