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Elections·Ethiopia

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Elections·Ethiopia

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Abiy Ahmed 97.6%

Gedion Timothewos <1%

Berhanu Nega <1%

Adanech Abiebie <1%

Polymarket

$284,369,784 Vol.

Abiy Ahmed 97.6%

Gedion Timothewos <1%

Berhanu Nega <1%

Adanech Abiebie <1%

Polymarket

$284,369,784 Vol.

icon for Abiy Ahmed

Abiy Ahmed

$136,722 Vol.

98%

icon for Gedion Timothewos

Gedion Timothewos

$55,932,844 Vol.

1%

icon for Berhanu Nega

Berhanu Nega

$29,634,962 Vol.

1%

icon for Adanech Abiebie

Adanech Abiebie

$83,447,744 Vol.

1%

icon for Alesa Mengesha

Alesa Mengesha

$13,576,241 Vol.

1%

icon for Belete Molla

Belete Molla

$32,286,370 Vol.

<1%

icon for Shimelis Abdisa

Shimelis Abdisa

$41,421,688 Vol.

<1%

icon for Demeke Mekonnen

Demeke Mekonnen

$27,933,213 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Abiy Ahmed’s commanding position in the next prime minister market stems from his Prosperity Party’s decisive victory in the June 2026 general election, securing 438 of 501 contested seats and a clear parliamentary majority that will formally select the prime minister later this year. This outcome reflects the party’s organizational strength, limited effective opposition participation, and Abiy’s established control over federal institutions since 2018. Ongoing regional insurgencies and economic pressures have not altered the parliamentary arithmetic. Traders assign only marginal probability to alternatives such as Gedion Timothewos or Berhanu Nega because no credible mechanism currently exists to displace Abiy before the selection process concludes. Potential disruptions remain limited to unforeseen events like acute health issues or abrupt institutional shifts that could still alter the timeline.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$284,369,784
End Date
Jun 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Abiy Ahmed’s commanding position in the next prime minister market stems from his Prosperity Party’s decisive victory in the June 2026 general election, securing 438 of 501 contested seats and a clear parliamentary majority that will formally select the prime minister later this year. This outcome reflects the party’s organizational strength, limited effective opposition participation, and Abiy’s established control over federal institutions since 2018. Ongoing regional insurgencies and economic pressures have not altered the parliamentary arithmetic. Traders assign only marginal probability to alternatives such as Gedion Timothewos or Berhanu Nega because no credible mechanism currently exists to displace Abiy before the selection process concludes. Potential disruptions remain limited to unforeseen events like acute health issues or abrupt institutional shifts that could still alter the timeline.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$284,369,784
End Date
Jun 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abiy Ahmed" at 98%, followed by "Gedion Timothewos" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" has generated $284.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" is "Abiy Ahmed" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gedion Timothewos" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.