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NCAA Football: CFB Playoffs team to make Semis

icon for NCAA Football: CFB Playoffs team to make Semis
Sports·CFB

NCAA Football: CFB Playoffs team to make Semis

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$1,294 Vol.

Polymarket

Arizona St.

$0 Vol.

50%

Ohio St.

$168 Vol.

46%

Oregon

$0 Vol.

37%

Notre Dame

$265 Vol.

35%

Indiana

$0 Vol.

35%

Miami (FL)

$0 Vol.

25%

Texas Tech

$170 Vol.

25%

Georgia

$0 Vol.

22%

Texas

$167 Vol.

18%

Texas A&M

$0 Vol.

17%

Oklahoma

$0 Vol.

14%

Alabama

$100 Vol.

12%

Penn St.

$0 Vol.

11%

Ole Miss

$0 Vol.

11%

LSU

$220 Vol.

10%

BYU

$0 Vol.

8%

Florida

$0 Vol.

8%

Michigan

$0 Vol.

8%

Baylor

$60 Vol.

7%

Clemson

$0 Vol.

7%

Tennessee

$0 Vol.

7%

Missouri

$0 Vol.

6%

SMU

$0 Vol.

6%

South Carolina

$0 Vol.

6%

Auburn

$0 Vol.

5%

Houston

$0 Vol.

5%

Arizona

$0 Vol.

5%

Iowa

$0 Vol.

5%

Louisville

$0 Vol.

5%

Utah

$0 Vol.

5%

James Madison

$20 Vol.

4%

Vanderbilt

$60 Vol.

4%

Georgia Tech

$0 Vol.

4%

Illinois

$0 Vol.

4%

TCU

$0 Vol.

4%

Virginia

$0 Vol.

4%

Washington

$0 Vol.

4%

Miami (OH)

$43 Vol.

3%

Arkansas

$0 Vol.

3%

California

$0 Vol.

3%

Florida St.

$0 Vol.

3%

Kansas St.

$0 Vol.

3%

North Carolina St.

$0 Vol.

3%

Oklahoma St.

$0 Vol.

3%

Pittsburgh

$0 Vol.

3%

Tulane

$0 Vol.

3%

Kentucky

$0 Vol.

3%

North Texas

$0 Vol.

3%

Virginia Tech

$0 Vol.

3%

USC

$21 Vol.

53%

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team reaches the semifinal round of the 2026 College Football Playoff. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The "semifinal round" refers to the round of the 12-team College Football Playoff for the 2026 season in which four teams remain (the winners of the four quarterfinal games). A team counts as reaching the semifinals if it is scheduled to play in a semifinal game by winning its quarterfinal game. If the College Football Playoff for the 2026 season is canceled or the semifinal round is not played by January 28, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the College Football Playoff (https://collegefootballplayoff.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Preseason projections for the 2026 College Football Playoff heavily favor established programs with elite returning talent, including Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miami, Texas, and Georgia, to secure top seeds and advance through the 12-team bracket to the semifinals. Key factors include quarterback stability—such as Arch Manning at Texas, Julian Sayin at Ohio State, and C.J. Carr at Notre Dame—along with defensive depth and conference title contention in the Big Ten and SEC. Early nonconference and conference matchups will shape rankings and tiebreakers, while injury reports, transfer portal impacts, and strength of schedule will influence which teams earn byes or survive the first round and quarterfinals. Historical patterns show that sustained regular-season dominance and favorable bracket positioning often determine semifinal participants.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team reaches the semifinal round of the 2026 College Football Playoff. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

The "semifinal round" refers to the round of the 12-team College Football Playoff for the 2026 season in which four teams remain (the winners of the four quarterfinal games). A team counts as reaching the semifinals if it is scheduled to play in a semifinal game by winning its quarterfinal game.

If the College Football Playoff for the 2026 season is canceled or the semifinal round is not played by January 28, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the College Football Playoff (https://collegefootballplayoff.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,294
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team reaches the semifinal round of the 2026 College Football Playoff. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The "semifinal round" refers to the round of the 12-team College Football Playoff for the 2026 season in which four teams remain (the winners of the four quarterfinal games). A team counts as reaching the semifinals if it is scheduled to play in a semifinal game by winning its quarterfinal game. If the College Football Playoff for the 2026 season is canceled or the semifinal round is not played by January 28, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the College Football Playoff (https://collegefootballplayoff.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team reaches the semifinal round of the 2026 College Football Playoff. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The "semifinal round" refers to the round of the 12-team College Football Playoff for the 2026 season in which four teams remain (the winners of the four quarterfinal games). A team counts as reaching the semifinals if it is scheduled to play in a semifinal game by winning its quarterfinal game. If the College Football Playoff for the 2026 season is canceled or the semifinal round is not played by January 28, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the College Football Playoff (https://collegefootballplayoff.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Preseason projections for the 2026 College Football Playoff heavily favor established programs with elite returning talent, including Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miami, Texas, and Georgia, to secure top seeds and advance through the 12-team bracket to the semifinals. Key factors include quarterback stability—such as Arch Manning at Texas, Julian Sayin at Ohio State, and C.J. Carr at Notre Dame—along with defensive depth and conference title contention in the Big Ten and SEC. Early nonconference and conference matchups will shape rankings and tiebreakers, while injury reports, transfer portal impacts, and strength of schedule will influence which teams earn byes or survive the first round and quarterfinals. Historical patterns show that sustained regular-season dominance and favorable bracket positioning often determine semifinal participants.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team reaches the semifinal round of the 2026 College Football Playoff. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

The "semifinal round" refers to the round of the 12-team College Football Playoff for the 2026 season in which four teams remain (the winners of the four quarterfinal games). A team counts as reaching the semifinals if it is scheduled to play in a semifinal game by winning its quarterfinal game.

If the College Football Playoff for the 2026 season is canceled or the semifinal round is not played by January 28, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the College Football Playoff (https://collegefootballplayoff.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,294
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team reaches the semifinal round of the 2026 College Football Playoff. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The "semifinal round" refers to the round of the 12-team College Football Playoff for the 2026 season in which four teams remain (the winners of the four quarterfinal games). A team counts as reaching the semifinals if it is scheduled to play in a semifinal game by winning its quarterfinal game. If the College Football Playoff for the 2026 season is canceled or the semifinal round is not played by January 28, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the College Football Playoff (https://collegefootballplayoff.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NCAA Football: CFB Playoffs team to make Semis" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 50+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "USC" at 53%, followed by "Arizona St." at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NCAA Football: CFB Playoffs team to make Semis" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NCAA Football: CFB Playoffs team to make Semis," browse the 50+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NCAA Football: CFB Playoffs team to make Semis" is "USC" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Arizona St." at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NCAA Football: CFB Playoffs team to make Semis" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.