Mid-decade redistricting signed into law in September 2025 transformed Missouri’s 5th congressional district from a Democratic-leaning seat centered on Kansas City into a Republican-leaning district by incorporating rural counties east toward Columbia and Jefferson City while redistributing urban Democratic precincts. This shift produced a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+9 and prompted nonpartisan forecasters to rate the November 3, 2026 general election Solid or Safe Republican. Longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver faces Republican nominee Rick Brattin, who won the August 4 primary with 45 percent after securing an endorsement from President Trump. Ongoing litigation and referendum efforts have not altered the map’s use for the current cycle, leaving traders’ consensus heavily weighted toward a Republican outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
$10,750 Vol.
$10,750 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
16%
$10,750 Vol.
$10,750 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$8,060 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$2,690 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mid-decade redistricting signed into law in September 2025 transformed Missouri’s 5th congressional district from a Democratic-leaning seat centered on Kansas City into a Republican-leaning district by incorporating rural counties east toward Columbia and Jefferson City while redistributing urban Democratic precincts. This shift produced a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+9 and prompted nonpartisan forecasters to rate the November 3, 2026 general election Solid or Safe Republican. Longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver faces Republican nominee Rick Brattin, who won the August 4 primary with 45 percent after securing an endorsement from President Trump. Ongoing litigation and referendum efforts have not altered the map’s use for the current cycle, leaving traders’ consensus heavily weighted toward a Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$10,750End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mid-decade redistricting signed into law in September 2025 transformed Missouri’s 5th congressional district from a Democratic-leaning seat centered on Kansas City into a Republican-leaning district by incorporating rural counties east toward Columbia and Jefferson City while redistributing urban Democratic precincts. This shift produced a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+9 and prompted nonpartisan forecasters to rate the November 3, 2026 general election Solid or Safe Republican. Longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver faces Republican nominee Rick Brattin, who won the August 4 primary with 45 percent after securing an endorsement from President Trump. Ongoing litigation and referendum efforts have not altered the map’s use for the current cycle, leaving traders’ consensus heavily weighted toward a Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,750End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mid-decade redistricting signed into law in September 2025 transformed Missouri’s 5th congressional district from a Democratic-leaning seat centered on Kansas City into a Republican-leaning district by incorporating rural counties east toward Columbia and Jefferson City while redistributing urban Democratic precincts. This shift produced a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+9 and prompted nonpartisan forecasters to rate the November 3, 2026 general election Solid or Safe Republican. Longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver faces Republican nominee Rick Brattin, who won the August 4 primary with 45 percent after securing an endorsement from President Trump. Ongoing litigation and referendum efforts have not altered the map’s use for the current cycle, leaving traders’ consensus heavily weighted toward a Republican outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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