Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner secured her party's nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 74% of the vote in Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, a seat she has held since 2013. The district's partisan lean, reflected in its R+4 to R+6 Cook PVI and consistent Republican performance in recent statewide races, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 76.5%. Democratic primary winner Frederick Wellman faces structural challenges in a suburban St. Louis and Franklin County area that has not elected a Democrat to the House in over a decade. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with limited recent developments altering the outlook beyond the primary outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-02 House Election Winner
MO-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
77%
Democratic Party
24%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$4,381 Vol.
77%
Democratic Party
$3,793 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner secured her party's nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 74% of the vote in Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, a seat she has held since 2013. The district's partisan lean, reflected in its R+4 to R+6 Cook PVI and consistent Republican performance in recent statewide races, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 76.5%. Democratic primary winner Frederick Wellman faces structural challenges in a suburban St. Louis and Franklin County area that has not elected a Democrat to the House in over a decade. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with limited recent developments altering the outlook beyond the primary outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$8,174End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner secured her party's nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 74% of the vote in Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, a seat she has held since 2013. The district's partisan lean, reflected in its R+4 to R+6 Cook PVI and consistent Republican performance in recent statewide races, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 76.5%. Democratic primary winner Frederick Wellman faces structural challenges in a suburban St. Louis and Franklin County area that has not elected a Democrat to the House in over a decade. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with limited recent developments altering the outlook beyond the primary outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,174End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner secured her party's nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 74% of the vote in Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, a seat she has held since 2013. The district's partisan lean, reflected in its R+4 to R+6 Cook PVI and consistent Republican performance in recent statewide races, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 76.5%. Democratic primary winner Frederick Wellman faces structural challenges in a suburban St. Louis and Franklin County area that has not elected a Democrat to the House in over a decade. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with limited recent developments altering the outlook beyond the primary outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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