Minnesota's 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and has consistently supported Democratic candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, including incumbent Betty McCollum's 67.6% win in 2024. McCollum secured her party's nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 86% of the vote, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom prevailed in a low-turnout contest. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. This structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the district's partisan baseline underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to narrow the margin substantially before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-04 House Election Winner
MN-04 House Election Winner
$23,826 Vol.
$23,826 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$23,826 Vol.
$23,826 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,902 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$19,925 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and has consistently supported Democratic candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, including incumbent Betty McCollum's 67.6% win in 2024. McCollum secured her party's nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 86% of the vote, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom prevailed in a low-turnout contest. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. This structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the district's partisan baseline underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to narrow the margin substantially before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$23,826End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and has consistently supported Democratic candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, including incumbent Betty McCollum's 67.6% win in 2024. McCollum secured her party's nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 86% of the vote, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom prevailed in a low-turnout contest. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. This structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the district's partisan baseline underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to narrow the margin substantially before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,826End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and has consistently supported Democratic candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, including incumbent Betty McCollum's 67.6% win in 2024. McCollum secured her party's nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 86% of the vote, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom prevailed in a low-turnout contest. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic. This structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the district's partisan baseline underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to narrow the margin substantially before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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