Maryland’s 4th congressional district, encompassing heavily Democratic suburbs in Prince George’s County, maintains a strong partisan lean that favors the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against limited challengers, extending his established record after an 88 percent general-election win in 2024. Republican nominee George McDermott, a perennial candidate, faces minimal fundraising and organizational support in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 99 percent reflects these structural fundamentals, including historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the incumbent or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$46,648 Vol.
$46,648 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
99%
Republican Party
<1%
$46,648 Vol.
$46,648 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,944 Vol.
99%
Republican Party
$25,705 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district, encompassing heavily Democratic suburbs in Prince George’s County, maintains a strong partisan lean that favors the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against limited challengers, extending his established record after an 88 percent general-election win in 2024. Republican nominee George McDermott, a perennial candidate, faces minimal fundraising and organizational support in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 99 percent reflects these structural fundamentals, including historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the incumbent or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$46,648End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district, encompassing heavily Democratic suburbs in Prince George’s County, maintains a strong partisan lean that favors the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against limited challengers, extending his established record after an 88 percent general-election win in 2024. Republican nominee George McDermott, a perennial candidate, faces minimal fundraising and organizational support in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 99 percent reflects these structural fundamentals, including historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the incumbent or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,648End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th congressional district, encompassing heavily Democratic suburbs in Prince George’s County, maintains a strong partisan lean that favors the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against limited challengers, extending his established record after an 88 percent general-election win in 2024. Republican nominee George McDermott, a perennial candidate, faces minimal fundraising and organizational support in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 99 percent reflects these structural fundamentals, including historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the incumbent or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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