The closure of the DOJ criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, citing zero evidence of wrongdoing on headquarters renovation costs or Senate testimony, remains the dominant factor anchoring near-zero implied probabilities of federal charges by year-end. With Powell's term as Fed chair ending in May and successor Kevin Warsh confirmed, the matter transferred to the Fed inspector general without indictment, consistent with judicial findings that subpoenas lacked substantiation. Traders price in high evidentiary thresholds for perjury or related offenses against a former central bank leader, reinforced by bipartisan pushback emphasizing monetary policy independence amid prior tensions over interest rate decisions. No new developments have emerged in recent months, leaving the December 31 deadline distant with minimal catalysts ahead.