Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and heads into the November general election against Democratic nominee Drew Cox in Indiana's 4th congressional district. The seat's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including Baird's prior victories by wide margins, underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, low challenger fundraising, and the absence of competitive polling. A national Democratic surge or unforeseen incumbent-specific event could narrow the gap, though structural factors make substantial shifts improbable before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIN-04 House Election Winner
IN-04 House Election Winner
$10,272 Vol.
$10,272 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$10,272 Vol.
$10,272 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$7,932 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$2,340 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and heads into the November general election against Democratic nominee Drew Cox in Indiana's 4th congressional district. The seat's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including Baird's prior victories by wide margins, underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, low challenger fundraising, and the absence of competitive polling. A national Democratic surge or unforeseen incumbent-specific event could narrow the gap, though structural factors make substantial shifts improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$10,272End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and heads into the November general election against Democratic nominee Drew Cox in Indiana's 4th congressional district. The seat's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including Baird's prior victories by wide margins, underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, low challenger fundraising, and the absence of competitive polling. A national Democratic surge or unforeseen incumbent-specific event could narrow the gap, though structural factors make substantial shifts improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,272End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and heads into the November general election against Democratic nominee Drew Cox in Indiana's 4th congressional district. The seat's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including Baird's prior victories by wide margins, underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, low challenger fundraising, and the absence of competitive polling. A national Democratic surge or unforeseen incumbent-specific event could narrow the gap, though structural factors make substantial shifts improbable before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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