Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman secured the GOP nomination for Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District with 68 percent in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Kelly Thompson in the November general election. The district, anchored by Fort Wayne in northeast Indiana and rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+16 and has consistently delivered Republican victories by wide margins in recent cycles. Stutzman’s established fundraising edge, prior 65 percent win in 2024, and alignment with the district’s conservative electorate underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent Republican probability. A national Democratic wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp shift in local turnout could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors and limited Democratic resources make significant movement unlikely before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIN-03 House Election Winner
IN-03 House Election Winner
$23,987 Vol.
$23,987 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
96%
Democratic Party
5%
$23,987 Vol.
$23,987 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$4,661 Vol.
96%
Democratic Party
$19,326 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman secured the GOP nomination for Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District with 68 percent in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Kelly Thompson in the November general election. The district, anchored by Fort Wayne in northeast Indiana and rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+16 and has consistently delivered Republican victories by wide margins in recent cycles. Stutzman’s established fundraising edge, prior 65 percent win in 2024, and alignment with the district’s conservative electorate underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent Republican probability. A national Democratic wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp shift in local turnout could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors and limited Democratic resources make significant movement unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$23,987End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman secured the GOP nomination for Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District with 68 percent in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Kelly Thompson in the November general election. The district, anchored by Fort Wayne in northeast Indiana and rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+16 and has consistently delivered Republican victories by wide margins in recent cycles. Stutzman’s established fundraising edge, prior 65 percent win in 2024, and alignment with the district’s conservative electorate underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent Republican probability. A national Democratic wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp shift in local turnout could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors and limited Democratic resources make significant movement unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,987End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman secured the GOP nomination for Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District with 68 percent in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Kelly Thompson in the November general election. The district, anchored by Fort Wayne in northeast Indiana and rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+16 and has consistently delivered Republican victories by wide margins in recent cycles. Stutzman’s established fundraising edge, prior 65 percent win in 2024, and alignment with the district’s conservative electorate underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent Republican probability. A national Democratic wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp shift in local turnout could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors and limited Democratic resources make significant movement unlikely before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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