Illinois's partisan fundamentals and the March 2026 Democratic primary outcome anchor trader consensus around Juliana Stratton at 96.2 percent. The state has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, and Kamala Harris carried it by roughly 11 points in 2024. Stratton, backed by Governor JB Pritzker, defeated higher-profile primary challengers to become the nominee for the open Dick Durbin seat. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces structural disadvantages including limited name recognition and fundraising shortfalls. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome Illinois's consistent Democratic tilt in federal contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$31,812 Vol.
$31,812 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
96%
Don Tracy (R)
4%
$31,812 Vol.
$31,812 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
$16,810 Vol.
96%
Don Tracy (R)
$15,002 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's partisan fundamentals and the March 2026 Democratic primary outcome anchor trader consensus around Juliana Stratton at 96.2 percent. The state has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, and Kamala Harris carried it by roughly 11 points in 2024. Stratton, backed by Governor JB Pritzker, defeated higher-profile primary challengers to become the nominee for the open Dick Durbin seat. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces structural disadvantages including limited name recognition and fundraising shortfalls. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome Illinois's consistent Democratic tilt in federal contests.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$31,812End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's partisan fundamentals and the March 2026 Democratic primary outcome anchor trader consensus around Juliana Stratton at 96.2 percent. The state has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, and Kamala Harris carried it by roughly 11 points in 2024. Stratton, backed by Governor JB Pritzker, defeated higher-profile primary challengers to become the nominee for the open Dick Durbin seat. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces structural disadvantages including limited name recognition and fundraising shortfalls. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome Illinois's consistent Democratic tilt in federal contests.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$31,812End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's partisan fundamentals and the March 2026 Democratic primary outcome anchor trader consensus around Juliana Stratton at 96.2 percent. The state has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, and Kamala Harris carried it by roughly 11 points in 2024. Stratton, backed by Governor JB Pritzker, defeated higher-profile primary challengers to become the nominee for the open Dick Durbin seat. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces structural disadvantages including limited name recognition and fundraising shortfalls. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome Illinois's consistent Democratic tilt in federal contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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