OpenAI’s March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, paired with a $40 billion annualized revenue run rate, anchors trader expectations for a sizable IPO raise. The company’s confidential S-1 filing in June and August comments from CFO Sarah Friar—that a 2027 debut is likely, or sooner if growth accelerates—introduce timing uncertainty that compresses the distribution across $40–50 billion (35.3%) and lower brackets while lifting tail probabilities for $80 billion-plus outcomes. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s filing, ongoing losses, and Sam Altman’s $1 trillion valuation target further fragment consensus, as markets weigh dilution, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory scrutiny against OpenAI’s enterprise momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?
<$30B 32.7%
$80B–$90B 23.7%
$100B+ 16%
$70B–$80B 9.6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2027
<$30B
33%
$30B–$40B
4%
$40B–$50B
35%
$50B–$60B
6%
$60B–$70B
9%
$70B–$80B
10%
$80B–$90B
24%
$90B–$100B
4%
$100B+
16%
<$30B 32.7%
$80B–$90B 23.7%
$100B+ 16%
$70B–$80B 9.6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2027
<$30B
$603 Vol.
33%
$30B–$40B
$463 Vol.
4%
$40B–$50B
$1,621 Vol.
35%
$50B–$60B
$1,151 Vol.
6%
$60B–$70B
$496 Vol.
9%
$70B–$80B
$489 Vol.
10%
$80B–$90B
$448 Vol.
24%
$90B–$100B
$306 Vol.
4%
$100B+
$637 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, paired with a $40 billion annualized revenue run rate, anchors trader expectations for a sizable IPO raise. The company’s confidential S-1 filing in June and August comments from CFO Sarah Friar—that a 2027 debut is likely, or sooner if growth accelerates—introduce timing uncertainty that compresses the distribution across $40–50 billion (35.3%) and lower brackets while lifting tail probabilities for $80 billion-plus outcomes. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s filing, ongoing losses, and Sam Altman’s $1 trillion valuation target further fragment consensus, as markets weigh dilution, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory scrutiny against OpenAI’s enterprise momentum.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$6,214End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, paired with a $40 billion annualized revenue run rate, anchors trader expectations for a sizable IPO raise. The company’s confidential S-1 filing in June and August comments from CFO Sarah Friar—that a 2027 debut is likely, or sooner if growth accelerates—introduce timing uncertainty that compresses the distribution across $40–50 billion (35.3%) and lower brackets while lifting tail probabilities for $80 billion-plus outcomes. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s filing, ongoing losses, and Sam Altman’s $1 trillion valuation target further fragment consensus, as markets weigh dilution, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory scrutiny against OpenAI’s enterprise momentum.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,214End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s March 2026 $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, paired with a $40 billion annualized revenue run rate, anchors trader expectations for a sizable IPO raise. The company’s confidential S-1 filing in June and August comments from CFO Sarah Friar—that a 2027 debut is likely, or sooner if growth accelerates—introduce timing uncertainty that compresses the distribution across $40–50 billion (35.3%) and lower brackets while lifting tail probabilities for $80 billion-plus outcomes. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s filing, ongoing losses, and Sam Altman’s $1 trillion valuation target further fragment consensus, as markets weigh dilution, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory scrutiny against OpenAI’s enterprise momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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