Global seismic activity remains near long-term averages as the week begins, with USGS monitoring showing roughly 5–6 magnitude 5+ events daily and no dominant aftershock sequences or major clusters active. The Gutenberg-Richter distribution implies that M5.5+ counts typically range 8–12 per seven-day window worldwide, driven by steady strain release along the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered intraplate sources. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline alongside Poisson-like short-term variability, where outcomes cluster around 7–11 while the >13 bin leads at 20% due to the potential for new mainshocks or measurement revisions in daily catalogs. Key upcoming factors include any M6+ events that could trigger aftershocks or shifts in regional fault loading, with resolution hinging on official USGS tallies of confirmed magnitudes through August 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
more than 13 20%
≤6 14%
8 12%
9 11%
≤6
14%
7
9%
8
12%
9
11%
10
11%
11
9%
12
6%
13
7%
more than 13
20%
more than 13 20%
≤6 14%
8 12%
9 11%
≤6
14%
7
9%
8
12%
9
11%
10
11%
11
9%
12
6%
13
7%
more than 13
20%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic activity remains near long-term averages as the week begins, with USGS monitoring showing roughly 5–6 magnitude 5+ events daily and no dominant aftershock sequences or major clusters active. The Gutenberg-Richter distribution implies that M5.5+ counts typically range 8–12 per seven-day window worldwide, driven by steady strain release along the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered intraplate sources. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline alongside Poisson-like short-term variability, where outcomes cluster around 7–11 while the >13 bin leads at 20% due to the potential for new mainshocks or measurement revisions in daily catalogs. Key upcoming factors include any M6+ events that could trigger aftershocks or shifts in regional fault loading, with resolution hinging on official USGS tallies of confirmed magnitudes through August 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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