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icon for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?

icon for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?

more than 13 20%

≤6 14%

8 12%

9 11%

Polymarket
NEW

more than 13 20%

≤6 14%

8 12%

9 11%

Polymarket
NEW

≤6

$2,888 Vol.

14%

7

$49 Vol.

9%

8

$71 Vol.

12%

9

$62 Vol.

11%

10

$40 Vol.

11%

11

$31 Vol.

9%

12

$134 Vol.

6%

13

$34 Vol.

7%

more than 13

$888 Vol.

20%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity remains near long-term averages as the week begins, with USGS monitoring showing roughly 5–6 magnitude 5+ events daily and no dominant aftershock sequences or major clusters active. The Gutenberg-Richter distribution implies that M5.5+ counts typically range 8–12 per seven-day window worldwide, driven by steady strain release along the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered intraplate sources. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline alongside Poisson-like short-term variability, where outcomes cluster around 7–11 while the >13 bin leads at 20% due to the potential for new mainshocks or measurement revisions in daily catalogs. Key upcoming factors include any M6+ events that could trigger aftershocks or shifts in regional fault loading, with resolution hinging on official USGS tallies of confirmed magnitudes through August 30.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$4,197
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity remains near long-term averages as the week begins, with USGS monitoring showing roughly 5–6 magnitude 5+ events daily and no dominant aftershock sequences or major clusters active. The Gutenberg-Richter distribution implies that M5.5+ counts typically range 8–12 per seven-day window worldwide, driven by steady strain release along the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered intraplate sources. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline alongside Poisson-like short-term variability, where outcomes cluster around 7–11 while the >13 bin leads at 20% due to the potential for new mainshocks or measurement revisions in daily catalogs. Key upcoming factors include any M6+ events that could trigger aftershocks or shifts in regional fault loading, with resolution hinging on official USGS tallies of confirmed magnitudes through August 30.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$4,197
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "more than 13" at 20%, followed by "≤6" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 20¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 20% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?" is "more than 13" at 20%, meaning the market assigns a 20% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "≤6" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.