Trader consensus heavily favors more than 13 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes during August 17–23, 2026, reflecting USGS and global seismic network data showing elevated activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Multiple events, including M6.7–7.7 quakes in Indonesia and Peru plus clusters of M5.5+ aftershocks, pushed weekly totals well above the typical global rate of roughly 10–15 such events. Subduction-zone tectonics and recent model runs from agencies like the USGS confirmed the burst, with at least nine M5.5+ shocks recorded in a four-day span alone. The 97% implied probability leaves limited room for revision unless final catalog reviews reclassify borderline events or exclude aftershocks, though such adjustments remain unlikely given the magnitude and number of verified observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
$59,892 Vol.
$59,892 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
13
1%
>13
96%
$59,892 Vol.
$59,892 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
13
$8,385 Vol.
1%
>13
$21,241 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors more than 13 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes during August 17–23, 2026, reflecting USGS and global seismic network data showing elevated activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Multiple events, including M6.7–7.7 quakes in Indonesia and Peru plus clusters of M5.5+ aftershocks, pushed weekly totals well above the typical global rate of roughly 10–15 such events. Subduction-zone tectonics and recent model runs from agencies like the USGS confirmed the burst, with at least nine M5.5+ shocks recorded in a four-day span alone. The 97% implied probability leaves limited room for revision unless final catalog reviews reclassify borderline events or exclude aftershocks, though such adjustments remain unlikely given the magnitude and number of verified observations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Volume
$59,892End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors more than 13 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes during August 17–23, 2026, reflecting USGS and global seismic network data showing elevated activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Multiple events, including M6.7–7.7 quakes in Indonesia and Peru plus clusters of M5.5+ aftershocks, pushed weekly totals well above the typical global rate of roughly 10–15 such events. Subduction-zone tectonics and recent model runs from agencies like the USGS confirmed the burst, with at least nine M5.5+ shocks recorded in a four-day span alone. The 97% implied probability leaves limited room for revision unless final catalog reviews reclassify borderline events or exclude aftershocks, though such adjustments remain unlikely given the magnitude and number of verified observations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$59,892End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors more than 13 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes during August 17–23, 2026, reflecting USGS and global seismic network data showing elevated activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Multiple events, including M6.7–7.7 quakes in Indonesia and Peru plus clusters of M5.5+ aftershocks, pushed weekly totals well above the typical global rate of roughly 10–15 such events. Subduction-zone tectonics and recent model runs from agencies like the USGS confirmed the burst, with at least nine M5.5+ shocks recorded in a four-day span alone. The 97% implied probability leaves limited room for revision unless final catalog reviews reclassify borderline events or exclude aftershocks, though such adjustments remain unlikely given the magnitude and number of verified observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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