Skip to main content
icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Economy·Business

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Economy·Business

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$225,409 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$225,409 Vol.

Polymarket

3.9%

$44,198 Vol.

10%

3.8%

$41,318 Vol.

3%

3.7%

$27,425 Vol.

3%

3.6%

$5,589 Vol.

5%

3.5%

$33,070 Vol.

1%

3.0%

$917 Vol.

2%

2.0%

$564 Vol.

4%

1.0%

$40,570 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent developments show the 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.70% amid a higher neutral rate and elevated term premium driven by persistent fiscal deficits projected above 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply. Inflation data, with July headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, remain above the Fed’s 2% target despite modest cooling, supporting the FOMC’s hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range under Chair Warsh. Market pricing reflects limited scope for near-term easing, with some probability assigned to a December hike if price pressures reaccelerate from oil or tariffs. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and employment reports will provide key tests for whether yields can sustain a move below recent 4.60% lows before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$225,409
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent developments show the 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.70% amid a higher neutral rate and elevated term premium driven by persistent fiscal deficits projected above 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply. Inflation data, with July headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, remain above the Fed’s 2% target despite modest cooling, supporting the FOMC’s hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range under Chair Warsh. Market pricing reflects limited scope for near-term easing, with some probability assigned to a December hike if price pressures reaccelerate from oil or tariffs. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and employment reports will provide key tests for whether yields can sustain a move below recent 4.60% lows before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$225,409
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Related

icon for Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?

73%
icon for Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?

Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?

64%
icon for US defaults on debt by 2027?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

3%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.0%" at 100%, followed by "3.9%" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" has generated $225.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is "4.0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.9%" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.